According to @KobeissiLetter, the Treasury General Account has surpassed 900 billion for the first time since 2021 and has risen by about 666 billion since June, signaling tighter dollar liquidity. According to @KobeissiLetter, as the TGA rises it makes short-term borrowing in the repo market more expensive, with repo activity now around 3 trillion per day after tripling over the last three years. According to @KobeissiLetter, if funding pressures persist the Federal Reserve may need to expand its balance sheet again to stabilize markets, indicating widening liquidity cracks that crypto traders should monitor for potential impacts on BTC and ETH.

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet fell 24 percent over the last three years while the S&P 500 rose 90 percent, showing equities advanced during quantitative tightening rather than quantitative easing, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, this regime suggests liquidity-only models tied to Fed balance sheet size would not have captured the full SPX uptrend in this window, making trend and earnings driven signals more relevant for trade timing, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, crypto market participants should note that risk assets can rally despite balance sheet contraction, indicating central bank liquidity is not a standalone buy signal for digital assets, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, a detailed video breakdown is provided for further context on the SPX move and the balance sheet trajectory, source: YouTube video referenced by Charlie Bilello.

According to the source, Bitcoin traders are monitoring potential shifts in the Federal Reserve balance sheet because the weekly H.4.1 release details total assets and reserve balances that indicate U.S. dollar liquidity conditions relevant for risk assets like BTC, as published by the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41.htm. Key liquidity channels include the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, where changes in outstanding balances reflect shifts between money funds and bank reserves, with daily operation results published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo. Flows in the Treasury General Account at the Fed can drain or add reserves to the banking system, and traders track the TGA via the U.S. Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/dts.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, global liquidity is rising again after the U.S. Treasury drained roughly $500B to refill the Treasury General Account and is no longer removing a major drag on liquidity, citing the U.S. Treasury cash refill as the driver. According to @MilkRoadDaily, BTC has already reacted to this liquidity inflection, indicating improving crypto risk appetite. Traders can verify the Treasury General Account rebuild and ongoing trend via the U.S. Treasury Daily Statement as the source and monitor ON RRP usage and reserve balances via the Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release as the source. According to @MilkRoadDaily, if liquidity continues to expand, crypto benchmarks like BTC could push significantly higher, making liquidity metrics a key part of the trading playbook.

According to @rovercrc, BTC has risen about 182% since the Federal Reserve began shrinking its balance sheet, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025. The post centers on how a potential shift back to expansionary policy, which would increase the Fed’s balance sheet, could affect BTC’s liquidity and price action, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025. Traders can monitor official liquidity and policy signals via the Federal Reserve’s weekly H.4.1 balance sheet release and FOMC communications to gauge potential BTC sensitivity to policy changes, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.4.1 and FOMC. No specific timeframe or price targets are provided in the post, source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 6, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has declined by $17 billion over the past month, reaching $6.7 trillion, which is the lowest level since April 2020. Since April 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $2.3 trillion, or 25%. This ongoing quantitative tightening directly impacts crypto market liquidity, as reduced liquidity in traditional markets often translates to lower risk appetite for digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should monitor these macroeconomic shifts, as tightening financial conditions historically correlate with increased crypto market volatility and potential downward price pressure. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, May 9, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet declined by $17 billion over the last month, reaching $6.7 trillion, the lowest since April 2020 (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 9, 2025). Since April 2022, the balance sheet has been reduced by $2.3 trillion or 25%, representing nearly half of the $4.8 trillion the Fed purchased during pandemic-era quantitative easing. For crypto traders, this sustained quantitative tightening signals reduced liquidity and could increase volatility across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins as dollar liquidity tightens. Monitoring the Fed's balance sheet reductions is essential for anticipating crypto price swings and risk management.