According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve has introduced a new GDP metric that adjusts for physical gold imports due to their significant impact. The GDPNow tool reveals a Q1 2025 GDP contraction of -2.2% when accounting for gold, compared to -0.1% excluding it. This surge in gold buying aligns with recessionary trends, indicating potential trading opportunities for investors focusing on gold markets. As gold imports influence GDP significantly, traders should consider these dynamics when strategizing.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve has introduced a new GDPNow metric that accounts for the substantial imports of physical gold. This adjustment predicts a Q1 2025 GDP contraction of -2.2% when including gold imports, and a minimal contraction of -0.1% when excluding them. This surge in gold buying aligns with recession-level activity, marking a significant shift in economic trends.