According to @CryptoMichNL, the current roughly 35% BTC drawdown fits a still-intact Bitcoin cycle that no longer aligns neatly with the 4-year halving timeline and should be evaluated through macro and flow indicators, source: @CryptoMichNL. The author argues that spot ETF demand has added nearly 60,000 BTC of buy pressure and lifted BTC’s effective floor from the $30k–$40k range toward $80k–$120k, shifting price action toward institutional flows rather than a pure halving-driven supply model, source: @CryptoMichNL. He highlights that risk assets tend to struggle when Gold accelerates, so traders should track Gold strength, PMI trends, QT and high rates, and USD dynamics to gauge risk-on conditions for BTC, source: @CryptoMichNL. He notes a recurring relationship where CNY/USD bottoms aligned with ETH/BTC bottoms in 2016, 2019, and April 2025, implying today’s placement resembles mid-2016 or late-2019 rather than a late-cycle top, source: @CryptoMichNL. From the business-cycle lens, PMI is starting to improve while the Federal Reserve has begun overnight repos, placing markets near a cycle trough consistent with prior early-bull phases, source: @CryptoMichNL. Forward-looking drivers cited include major bank allocation channels to spot BTC ETFs, pro-clarity policy steps for DeFi, and potential monetary easing, while cautioning against rigidly anchoring to the 4-year template, source: @CryptoMichNL. Trading takeaway: favor buy-the-dip accumulation with strict risk controls while monitoring Gold strength, CNY/USD, ETH/BTC, PMI, and ETF flow trends, with the expectation of moderating volatility and yearly returns as BTC matures, source: @CryptoMichNL.