According to the source, talk of an upcoming IBM quantum computing milestone has revived questions about a potential Bitcoin Q-Day, but current public data indicates today’s machines remain far from breaking BTC’s ECDSA signatures (source: publicly available social media post; IBM Research 2023 quantum roadmap). IBM disclosed a 1,121‑qubit Condor processor and utility-scale, error-mitigated results on a 127‑qubit Eagle device in 2023, which are non–fault-tolerant and insufficient for large-scale Shor attacks on ECDSA-secp256k1 (source: IBM Research; Nature 2023 evidence-of-utility paper). Breaking Bitcoin’s ECDSA would require thousands of logical qubits and extremely deep circuits, implying millions of physical qubits at current error rates—well beyond near-term hardware (source: Roetteler et al. 2017 quantum resource estimates; NIST post-quantum cryptography guidance). Bitcoin uses ECDSA over secp256k1 and is vulnerable in principle to Shor’s algorithm once large fault‑tolerant machines exist, while Schnorr (BIP-340) is similarly based on the discrete log problem (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Shor 1994). For trading, the near-term quantum risk premium to BTC appears low, but headline-driven volatility is possible; monitor IBM Research announcements, NIST/NSA PQC transition timelines starting mid‑2020s, and any Bitcoin Core discussions/BIPs on post‑quantum migration to gauge regime‑shift risk (source: IBM Research updates; NSA CNSA 2.0 memo; NIST PQC transition updates).