According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 has increased to 47% despite ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. This shift suggests that markets are currently pricing in only a short-lived conflict, leading to reduced risk premiums in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor developments closely, as a confirmed nuclear agreement could further stabilize oil prices and decrease volatility for cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, which often react to geopolitical uncertainty. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 18, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 have surged to a new high of 45%, as reported by Kalshi. This increase comes directly after the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed that Iran is actively seeking de-escalation with the US and Israel. Traders should note that easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East often lead to reduced oil price volatility, which can in turn decrease safe-haven demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). As a result, crypto markets may experience lower volatility and trading volumes if the trend toward de-escalation continues. Source: @KobeissiLetter, Kalshi, WSJ.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US Q2 GDP growth estimates have surged to 2.8% as trade deals advance and tariff delays take effect, a significant increase from the 0.4% forecast on May 1, per @Kalshi (source: https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1929586810864189559). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model also points to a stronger real GDP outlook. This improved economic backdrop often boosts investor confidence, potentially drawing capital from risk assets like cryptocurrencies toward traditional equities. Traders should monitor shifts in market sentiment and capital flows, as robust US economic data can trigger volatility in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoin trading pairs.

According to @Kalshi, despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, there is an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in May. Fed Chair Powell's recent comments, indicating he is 'not in a hurry' to cut rates, suggest a steady monetary policy stance could be expected, impacting forex and cryptocurrency markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 has increased to 63%, as reported by @Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds could impact investor sentiment and market strategies, prompting traders to adjust their portfolios to hedge against potential economic downturns.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of a recession occurring in the United States this year has increased to 59%, as reported by @Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies as investors may seek to hedge against potential economic downturns. Traders might consider reallocating assets towards more defensive sectors or exploring options in safe-haven assets in anticipation of increased market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, foresee a total of 75 basis points reduction in interest rates by 2025, distributed over three cuts. This expectation arises amidst increasing recession probabilities, indicating potential rate cuts as early as next month.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%, as reported by Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds is crucial for traders as it may influence market sentiment and impact investment strategies. The elevated risk could lead to increased volatility in financial markets, prompting traders to reassess their portfolios for potential downturn protection.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies, prompting traders to consider risk management and hedging strategies in their portfolios.

According to Eleanor Terrett, Eliezer Mishory, who was the Chief Regulatory Officer and General Counsel at prediction markets firm Kalshi, is leaving to join Elon Musk at DOGE. This move could signal a strategic shift in DOGE's regulatory approach, which may impact DOGE trading dynamics.

According to @Kalshi, there is now a 73% chance that President Trump will establish the 'External Revenue Service.' Market odds increased following Commerce Secretary Lutnick's announcement that the April 2nd tariffs will initiate the External Revenue Service. This development is crucial for traders as retaliatory tariffs could impact market conditions in 8 days. Source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this has now fallen to a median forecast of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. The likelihood of a rate cut before June 2025 has also decreased, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a less dovish monetary policy outlook.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this forecast has now decreased to a median of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring before June 2025 has also diminished.

According to @EleanorTerrett, Robinhood CEO @vladtenev has announced the company's move into prediction markets, inspired by the successes of @Polymarket and @Kalshi. This strategic expansion aims to integrate with digital platforms, as highlighted by discussions with @MyriadMarkets founders about their onchain prediction markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the odds of a US recession in 2025 have surged to 43% due to the escalating trade war. This represents the highest recession probability since November 17th, as reported by @Kalshi. Traders should consider the potential impacts on market volatility and economic growth forecasts.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Kalshi now controls 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market, marking it as a 'covered' exchange. This significant milestone is attributed to the exchange surpassing $2 billion in trade volume, indicating rapid evolution in prediction markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast a base case of US inflation rising to 4.0% by 2025, as per data from @Kalshi. This signifies a substantial increase from the 2.3% inflation expectation recorded on December 1st, 2024. Additionally, there is a growing 22% probability that inflation could exceed 4.0%, indicating potential volatility in economic conditions. Traders should closely monitor these shifts, as they could impact investment strategies and interest rate expectations.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, now predict a base case of US inflation rising to 4.0% in 2025. This marks a significant shift from the December 1st projection of 2.3% inflation for the same year. Additionally, there is now a 22% chance that inflation could exceed this 4% mark, indicating potential upward pressure on interest rates and market volatility.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, now anticipate that DOGE will be involved in cutting 317,000 government jobs by 2025. This figure has risen significantly from the 200,000 job cuts predicted just nine days ago. Traders should closely monitor these developments as they may impact market dynamics and sentiment around DOGE.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast that DOGE will be responsible for cutting 317,000 government employees by 2025 as reported by @Kalshi. This is a significant increase from the 200,000 job cuts expected just nine days prior, highlighting a rapidly changing market sentiment that could influence DOGE trading strategies.