According to The Kobeissi Letter citing @Kalshi, the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 has jumped to 43% following President Trump's new tariff threats. This heightened recession risk may trigger increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, as traders anticipate potential capital flows from equities to digital assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty (source: Kalshi via The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).