According to the source, the post highlights expert debate on whether Bitcoin has bottomed, prompting traders to verify with on-chain, technical, and flows data (source post). Historically, BTC bottoms are confirmed when price reclaims and holds both the 200-week moving average and the realized price, marking the end of undervaluation phases (Fidelity Digital Assets; Glassnode Research). Bottoming phases often align with MVRV rising back above 1 after an extended period below 1, while SOPR resets near 1 indicate spent-profit exhaustion and reduced sell pressure (Glassnode Research). Derivatives sentiment typically normalizes as funding turns from negative to neutral and futures basis compresses with falling open interest, signaling deleveraging typical of cycle lows (Binance Research; CME Group). Miner capitulation and subsequent recovery, reflected by Puell Multiple sub-0.5 followed by rebound and Hash Ribbons bullish cross, have historically coincided with durable bottoms (Glassnode Research; Capriole Investments). Renewed spot demand is often preceded by net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising stablecoin balances on exchanges, supporting price floors via incremental buy-side liquidity (Farside Investors; CryptoQuant). Macro headwinds easing, such as stabilizing real yields which historically pressure risk assets, can further support bottom confirmations in crypto risk appetite regimes (FRED; Coin Metrics).

According to @santimentfeed, the past week’s crypto selloff pushed 30-day MVRV for top caps into negative territory, with BTC average 30-day returns at -5.8%, ETH at -8.4%, and XRP at -15.3%, indicating maximum underperformance for XRP among the three. According to @santimentfeed, the further below 0% these MVRV metrics fall, the stronger the justification to buy the dip, making XRP the most likely recovery candidate in the near term. According to @santimentfeed, traders should monitor the live MVRV dashboard and fluctuations to time potential entries as MVRV moves back toward 0%.

According to @glassnode, MVRV standard deviation bands have capped SOL rallies at the +0.5σ level since the March 2024 top, indicating profit-taking has outweighed demand at that band, source: @glassnode. SOL now trades near the MVRV mean around $210, making this level critical to defend for bullish continuation, source: @glassnode. If the mean holds, the next upside test is the +0.5σ band near $275, which has acted as resistance, source: @glassnode.

According to Santiment, ETH traders who have made at least one transfer in the past year are experiencing an average return of +38%, while the average return over the past month is +15%. Both figures are significantly above typical historical levels, as measured by the Mean Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric. These strong returns highlight increased profitability and may indicate heightened risk of a correction if overextended. Traders should monitor MVRV for potential reversal signals or profit-taking opportunities, as sustained high MVRV values often precede volatility in the ETH market (Source: Santiment).

According to @CryptoCon_, none of the 30 major Bitcoin top indicators tracked by Coinglass—including Pi Cycle, MVRV, and RSI—have triggered yet. This signals that the current BTC price has not yet reached its cycle peak, with Coinglass models projecting a target range between $135,000 and $230,000 for this cycle (source: @CryptoCon_ on Twitter, Coinglass analytics). For traders, this suggests continued bullish momentum and potential upside, with key technical signals yet to flash caution. Monitoring these indicators closely can help inform entry and exit strategies as the cycle progresses.

According to glassnode, $ETH has fallen below its realized price of $2,058.04 for the first time in two years, indicating that the average investor is now facing an unrealized loss. The current ETH price is $1,917.86, with a Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of 0.93, reflecting a 7% unrealized loss. This development could signal a potential buying opportunity or a need for caution among traders, depending on market sentiment and future price movements.

According to glassnode, Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $92.5K, a historical threshold distinguishing local bull and bear phases. The STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 0.96, indicating STHs are experiencing an average paper loss of 4%. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the STH cost basis, it could lead to sustained selling pressure from recent buyers.