According to the source, an X/Twitter post dated Oct 11, 2025 claims that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado—described there as this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner—previously referred to Bitcoin as “resistance money” and includes a link to an earlier interview. Source: X/Twitter post, Oct 11, 2025. This claim has not been independently verified against the Nobel Prize’s official announcement; confirm via nobelprize.org before positioning on the headline to avoid headline-driven whipsaws. Source: The Nobel Prize official website (nobelprize.org). While awaiting confirmation, traders can monitor BTC spot price, BTC perpetual funding rates, and LATAM exchange volumes for sentiment shifts related to political adoption narratives. Sources: Binance and OKX derivatives/spot metrics pages; Kaiko market data feeds.

According to the source, probabilities on Polymarket for the eventual Nobel Peace Prize winner surged from near-zero to over 70% several hours before the public announcement, based on the market’s timestamped price history and order book data. source: Polymarket market data The sharp repricing indicates heavy net buying of contracts ahead of the news, creating meaningful edge for positioned traders on the real-money prediction market. source: Polymarket trade history Polymarket operates on the Polygon network and settles markets in USDC, so participants need USDC on Polygon to trade these events. source: Polymarket documentation Regulatory risk remains material after Polymarket paid a 1.4 million dollar civil penalty and imposed U.S. access restrictions in a 2022 settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, impacting availability for U.S.-based traders. source: U.S. CFTC press release For trading, monitoring sudden probability spikes on Polymarket can serve as an early signal for event outcomes and liquidity shifts across prediction markets. source: Polymarket market feed