According to the source, Polymarket markets are pricing a 30% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $100,000 in October and only a 1% probability of $150,000, indicating traders see low near-term odds for an extreme upside tail (source: Polymarket market odds). These Polymarket-implied probabilities suggest positioning and risk management can focus on the $100k breakout zone as the key level while assigning minimal weight to scenarios above $150k for October, informing options premium, stop placement, and take-profit targets (source: Polymarket probabilities).