According to Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly), the latest headline PCE inflation rate stands at 2.1%, and the 'supercore' PCE has turned negative for the first time since COVID, signaling softening inflationary pressures. Despite these data points and heightened economic uncertainty, CME FedWatch data shows that market odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming June 18th meeting remain low at just 5% (Source: Stock Talk on Twitter, CME FedWatch). For crypto traders, persistent high rates may dampen risk appetite and limit immediate upside, but signs of cooling inflation could strengthen the narrative for future policy easing, supporting medium-term bullish sentiment in leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, this week’s key US economic events include the Memorial Day market closure on Monday, CB Consumer Confidence data release on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, Q1 2025 US GDP data on Thursday, and both April PCE Inflation data and MI Consumer Sentiment data on Friday (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 25, 2025). Each event holds significant trading relevance for the cryptocurrency market, particularly the Fed minutes and PCE inflation print, which are closely watched for hints on US monetary policy and inflation direction. Crypto traders should monitor volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices around these releases, as major macroeconomic data historically triggers sharp moves in digital asset markets.

According to @RhythmicAnalyst on Twitter, recent GDP and PCE data signal increasing recession risks for financial markets. The analysis highlights that Trump’s new tariffs are straining global trade flows, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s delayed monetary response has limited economic stimulus options. Meanwhile, persistently high consumer credit usage, as shown in the latest Federal Reserve economic data, further pressures household balance sheets. Traders should monitor these macroeconomic indicators closely, as sustained negative trends in GDP growth and rising PCE inflation could trigger heightened market volatility and potential downturns in risk assets. (Source: @RhythmicAnalyst, April 30, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the new tariffs announced by Trump, combined with expected retaliatory measures, are projected to contract GDP by between -3% and -4% if these tariffs persist long-term. Additionally, PCE inflation is anticipated to rise toward 4% in the coming months as price increases take effect. This outlook suggests a cautious approach for traders, particularly in sectors vulnerable to tariff impacts.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, PCE inflation is considered the final critical indicator as both PPI and CPI inflation metrics are showing signs of rebounding. This development is crucial for traders as it may influence market positioning and trading strategies. The Kobeissi Letter also highlights their impressive track record with over 370% gains since 2020, suggesting a strong historical performance in market prediction and trading strategy formulation.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, PCE inflation is anticipated to be a critical determinant for trading strategies as both PPI and CPI inflation are experiencing an uptrend. This suggests potential adjustments in market positions to accommodate inflationary pressures. The Kobeissi Letter highlights their trading success, noting a return of over +370% since 2020, and offers subscription services for detailed trade insights. This information is crucial for traders looking to navigate inflation-driven market dynamics effectively.