According to the source, a social media post claims Stocktwits and Polymarket have partnered to launch earnings prediction markets, with the information originating from the user-provided X post dated 2025-09-16 (Source: user-provided X post, 2025-09-16). No official announcement from Stocktwits or Polymarket was included in the materials provided, which prevents verification and a reliable assessment of trading impact at this time (Source: user-provided materials).

According to @nic__carter, he publicly asked Polymarket and Shayne Coplan if they work with a specific person, without providing additional details in the post; this is the only information disclosed in the source. Source: https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1966580483858325627 The post contains no confirmations from the mentioned parties and no operational, compliance, or market data, so no verifiable trading signal or platform change can be derived from this post alone. Source: https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1966580483858325627

According to @peterhch, USDH’s bid mechanism means validator vote results are not the final resolution because stakers can restake to validators they believe in after the vote, creating a post-vote repricing window, source: @peterhch on X (Sep 12, 2025). He states that Polymarket odds on Paxos immediately after validator vote results were overly pessimistic, suggesting short-term mispricing, source: @peterhch on X (Sep 12, 2025). He reports taking the Paxos side on Polymarket during that window and achieving an easy 2.5x flip, highlighting a timing-based trading setup around governance events, source: @peterhch on X (Sep 12, 2025).

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket prediction markets assign a 97.5% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with an 85% chance the move is 25 bps (source: Polymarket market odds). Kaiko has reported a negative correlation between BTC performance and rising U.S. real yields in 2023–2024, highlighting why Fed easing odds are a key macro input for crypto positioning (source: Kaiko research). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH spot-perp basis, funding, options implied volatility, and DXY/UST2Y around the decision to validate the path implied by Polymarket pricing (source: Deribit and Glassnode derivatives dashboards; Polymarket odds).

According to @rovercrc, the CFTC has given Polymarket approval to go live in the United States, as stated in a post on X dated September 3, 2025, which does not include an official CFTC order or press release link for independent verification, making confirmation pending at this time, source: @rovercrc on X, 2025-09-03. Polymarket previously settled CFTC charges in January 2022, paid a $1.4 million civil monetary penalty, and restricted access for U.S. users, establishing that formal CFTC actions dictate the platform’s U.S. market permissions, source: CFTC press release PR 8485-22, 2022-01-03. Trading impact will depend on the exact terms of any official CFTC action, including which event contracts are permitted, KYC and AML requirements, and geographic eligibility, none of which are specified in the cited post, source: CFTC regulatory framework and @rovercrc on X, 2025-09-03. Polymarket transactions are settled in USDC on Polygon, so any verified expansion of U.S. accessibility would affect on-chain volume, gas usage, and USDC liquidity on that network, but such effects should only be considered after an official CFTC release or Polymarket announcement is published, source: Polymarket platform documentation and prior platform operations; CFTC.gov official releases.

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket pricing shows the market-implied probability of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September has dropped to 57%, based on active prediction market contracts where prices reflect odds (source: Polymarket; @rovercrc). For traders, this 57% benchmark offers a real-time macro gauge to calibrate exposure and hedges in liquidity-sensitive crypto assets such as BTC and ETH around upcoming FOMC communications and data releases (source: Polymarket; @rovercrc).

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket traders are pricing a 70% probability of a September US Federal Reserve rate cut, indicating strong market expectations for policy easing. Source: @rovercrc. Traders may monitor this 70% odds level as a macro input when sizing BTC and ETH exposure into September policy risk. Source: @rovercrc.

According to @rovercrc, data from Polymarket indicates there is now a 53% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall below $100,000 before 2026. This development reflects shifting trader sentiment in the crypto derivatives market and highlights increased uncertainty around Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory. Market participants should monitor this trend as it could influence short-term trading strategies and overall market volatility (Source: @rovercrc).

According to @AggrNews, the crypto prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly considering the launch of its own stablecoin. This development could significantly impact the platform's ecosystem by potentially improving capital efficiency, creating new yield opportunities, and reducing its dependence on third-party stablecoins like USDC. For traders, the introduction of a native stablecoin could be a precursor to further platform developments, including a potential future token airdrop, which is a highly watched catalyst.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, prediction market odds on Polymarket for the removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have surged to their highest level year-to-date. This development signals growing political uncertainty surrounding the Fed's leadership, which could have significant implications for traders. A potential change at the helm of the U.S. central bank could lead to shifts in monetary policy and interest rate outlooks, directly impacting the valuation of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader digital asset market.

According to dydxfoundation, the Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX) Jupiter is pausing all DAO votes until the end of 2025, citing a "breakdown in trust" and an inefficient governance structure. Jupiter executive Kash Dhanda stated the protocol is in a "critical period" and this pause will allow them to return in 2026 with a new approach. For traders, while active staking rewards (ASR) of 50 million JUP per quarter will continue, no new DAO-funded work groups will be created, preventing additional token emissions. The JUP token has lost 21.8% of its value over the past 30 days, trading around $0.40, though this announcement did not cause immediate significant volatility. In separate news highlighting governance risks, the crypto prediction market Polymarket is embroiled in a $160 million controversy over a disputed market outcome, with accusations of manipulation against UMA oracle validators. The underlying asset, Solana (SOL), was trading at approximately $152.37, showing a 1.688% increase over 24 hours.

According to @WhiteHouse, U.S. Senator Tim Scott has set a new deadline of September 30 for completing the crypto market structure legislation, a timeline he described as a "realistic expectation." This development provides a clearer path for regulatory clarity in the United States, a key factor for institutional and retail traders. White House crypto adviser Bo Hines endorsed the timeline and urged the House to quickly pass the Senate's GENIUS Act for stablecoins. Concurrently, investor sentiment is improving as the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket have fallen to 22%, a sharp drop from a high of 66% in April. This reduced economic fear, also supported by Goldman Sachs lowering its recession odds to 30%, may increase risk appetite for assets like cryptocurrencies. Amid these developments, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around the $2,550-$2,560 range.

According to @WhiteHouse, a new deadline for the U.S. crypto market structure bill has been set for September 30, a timeline confirmed by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott. This development provides traders with a clearer timeframe for potential regulatory clarity, although disagreements with the House over a separate stablecoin bill could still introduce delays. In parallel, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, with the odds of a 2025 U.S. recession on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket falling to 22%, the lowest since February. This drop from a high of 66% in April, as cited in the report, reflects easing trade tensions and a more optimistic outlook from firms like Goldman Sachs, suggesting an increased risk appetite that could be favorable for assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to @WhiteHouse, a clearer timeline for U.S. crypto regulation has emerged, potentially boosting market sentiment for assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). U.S. Senator Tim Scott has set a new deadline of September 30 for passing a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, a timeline he described as a "realistic expectation." This development provides a key date for traders to watch, although potential delays remain as the House of Representatives has not committed to the Senate's pace, particularly on a separate stablecoin bill. Complementing this regulatory news, macroeconomic optimism is growing as the odds of a 2025 U.S. recession on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket have plunged to 22%, the lowest since February and down from a high of 66% in April. This improved economic outlook, driven by easing trade tensions, is historically bullish for risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market.

According to @WhiteHouse, a key U.S. Senator has committed to a September 30 deadline for finalizing the crucial crypto market structure bill, providing a clearer timeline for regulatory clarity. Senator Tim Scott confirmed this accelerated schedule to a White House crypto adviser, a move supported by the administration which is also pushing for the House to quickly pass the Senate's stablecoin legislation. This potential for regulatory progress comes as macroeconomic fears subside, with recession odds for 2025 on the prediction market Polymarket dropping to a multi-month low of 22%. The combination of clearer legislative timelines and diminishing economic concerns may reduce uncertainty and create a more favorable environment for digital assets like Ethereum (ETH), which is currently trading around $2,557 amidst minor daily fluctuations.

According to @WhiteHouse, two significant developments are influencing the cryptocurrency market. Firstly, U.S. Senator Tim Scott announced a new target deadline of September 30 for completing the U.S. crypto market structure bill, signaling a push for regulatory clarity sooner than some lawmakers had predicted. This accelerated timeline could potentially resolve long-standing uncertainty for crypto investors. Secondly, macroeconomic fears are subsiding, as evidenced by odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket for a 2025 U.S. recession dropping to just 22%, the lowest since February. This marks a sharp reversal from a peak of 66% in April, a sentiment shift also reflected by Goldman Sachs lowering its recession probability. These factors create a more favorable backdrop for digital assets, occurring as Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,563, having seen modest volatility over the past day.

According to @WhiteHouse, U.S. Senator Tim Scott has set a new target deadline of September 30 for completing a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, a move that could provide significant regulatory clarity for the digital asset space. This timeline was confirmed to a White House crypto adviser, although it faces potential hurdles from disagreements with the House on a separate stablecoin bill and a lack of matching urgency from the Senate Agriculture Committee, as per the source. Simultaneously, the macroeconomic outlook is improving for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, with betting odds on a 2025 U.S. recession plunging to 22% on the prediction market Polymarket, their lowest point since February. This decline in recession fears, down from a high of 66% in April, is attributed to easing trade tensions. In the current market, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,557, down 0.24% over 24 hours, while its ratio against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) has decreased by 1.14%, indicating slight underperformance against the leading cryptocurrency.

According to @StockMKTNewz, bets on a 2025 U.S. recession have fallen sharply, with odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket dropping to 22%, the lowest since late February. This decline from a high of 66% in April is attributed to easing trade tensions, particularly after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at finalizing trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline, as reported by Reuters. The improved macroeconomic outlook has fueled a rally in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) gaining over 1% to briefly top $109,000. Other major assets also rose, with XRP and Solana (SOL) gaining over 2% each, and Dogecoin (DOGE) increasing by 3%, indicating a renewed risk-on sentiment among traders.

According to @FoxNews, Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) has announced a $400 million share buyback that will be funded separately from its Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategy, signaling a continued commitment to its corporate crypto holdings. The company, which holds approximately $3 billion on its balance sheet, saw its stock rise over 3.8% on the news. This corporate development coincides with improving macroeconomic sentiment, as odds for a 2025 U.S. recession on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket have dropped to 22%, the lowest since late February. This decrease in recession fears, attributed to easing trade tensions, is generally considered a bullish signal for risk-on assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market, as it suggests stronger investor confidence.

According to @FoxNews, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a rally following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinting at new trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline. The source reports that Bitcoin gained over 1%, briefly surpassing $109,000, while XRP and Solana (SOL) each rose over 2%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a 3% increase. This positive market sentiment is linked to Bessent's statement that a failure to secure deals by July 9 would result in higher tariffs being reinstated on August 1, per a Reuters report of his CNN interview. The easing of trade tensions has also led to a significant drop in U.S. recession odds for 2025 on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, which have fallen to 22%, the lowest since late February. This marks a reversal from April when recession fears peaked after President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement caused BTC to drop to $75,000.