According to @OnchainLens, a newly created wallet "-blue9" deposited 10,000 USDC into PolyMarket and bought YES shares on the market titled "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" source: @OnchainLens tweet dated Jan 20, 2026. The wallet’s activity and position are visible on the PolyMarket profile at polymarket.com/@-blue9, confirming the deposit and YES-side exposure on that contract, source: polymarket.com/@-blue9.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created Polymarket account named 'GamblingRuinsLives' was opened roughly 10 hours ago and placed a single $53.7K position on the 'Trump acquires Greenland before 2027' market with no other bets recorded, highlighting a one-off concentrated position by a new participant (source: X post by @lookonchain; market: polymarket.com/0xe522e8543f77c441c1b83f3dbb59e660972e2ad8).

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader beachboy4 moved from over $6.8M in cumulative losses to about $395K net profit within two days, generating over $10.5M profit across 5 predictions and fully recovering prior losses; Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 19, 2026, and Polymarket address 0xc2e7800b5af46e6093872b177b7a5e7f0563be51. Bet sizes rose from a few hundred thousand per bet to over $3M on a single bet during this period, indicating a sharp increase in position sizing; Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 19, 2026.

According to @OnchainLens, a newly created wallet spent 53,663 USDC to buy YES shares on the Polymarket contract asking Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027, indicating a sizable on-chain directional position in a low-probability market, source: @OnchainLens on X. According to @OnchainLens, the trader would receive a gross payout of 255,539 if the market resolves YES, which implies an estimated ~4.76x gross return and an average entry price of roughly 0.21 per share based on the figures reported, source: @OnchainLens on X. According to @OnchainLens, the account used the handle GamblingRuinsLives for this position, providing traceable on-chain activity for market participants monitoring Polymarket flow, source: @OnchainLens on X.

According to @OnchainLens, Polymarket trader 'beachboy4' realized a $6.12M profit in a single day, making the account the most profitable on the platform at present (source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 18, 2026; Polymarket profile: polymarket.com/@beachboy4?tab=positions). According to @OnchainLens, only $687,824 remains to recover from prior cumulative losses, indicating a near full drawdown recovery in one trading session (source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket profile: polymarket.com/@beachboy4?tab=positions). For traders, these figures underscore concentrated event-settlement P/L dynamics and liquidity in prediction markets, where single-day realized gains can materially shift cumulative performance (source: Onchain Lens reported performance and Polymarket public positions page).

According to @lookonchain, two Polymarket sports-market traders repeatedly bought contracts at 48–57¢ and lost nearly $10M in less than a month, highlighting the risk of oversized positions near even odds, source: @lookonchain. Trader 0x4924 logged 346 predictions with a 46.24% win rate and a realized PnL of -$5.96M over 24 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782. User bossoskil1 made 65 predictions with a 41.54% win rate and -$4.04M PnL in 11 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0xa5ea13a81d2b7e8e424b182bdc1db08e756bd96a. @lookonchain notes that ~50¢ pricing reflects coin-flip odds, so betting big accelerates drawdowns and produces negative expectancy when win rates stay below 50%, source: @lookonchain.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet labeled "mutualdelta" wagered $40,000 on the Polymarket contract "US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026" and lost the entire stake when the market settled against the bet, resulting in a -100% return; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011743341348786436; https://polymarket.com/0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59. According to Polymarket’s market page and @lookonchain’s post, the 'Yes' side paid out zero at resolution, confirming a full $40,000 loss for the wallet "mutualdelta"; source: https://polymarket.com/0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59; https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011743341348786436.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Ukraine has blocked Polymarket under unlicensed gambling laws and added the domain to the national ban registry (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Authorities criticized the platform for hosting bets on outcomes related to the Russian invasion, signaling stricter oversight of prediction markets (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Polymarket is now restricted in 34 countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, limiting platform access for traders in those jurisdictions (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026).

According to Lookonchain on X on Jan 15, 2026, smart trader hai15617 reused the same approach to trade short-term Bitcoin markets and earned another $44.5K. According to Lookonchain, the trader executed 24 predictions in one day with 8 winners, achieving a 33.33% win rate and total profits of $136.8K. According to Lookonchain, after joining Polymarket and placing 10 predictions, one single trade produced $99,779 in profit (+887%), offsetting multiple 100% losing positions. According to Lookonchain, the strategy does not predict BTC direction; it targets extreme short-term mispricing on Polymarket and deploys larger size when odds swing too far, where pricing errors matter more than win rate. According to Lookonchain, another user reportedly earned $92.3K within hours using the same mispricing strategy, underscoring the trading edge in prediction-market arbitrage around BTC volatility.

According to @CryptoMichNL, prediction markets are a simple way to express options-like BTC trades where market odds map directly to probability and potential payout. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He states that when BTC is at $90K, the market-implied chance of hitting $120K within a month is below 2%, but if BTC crawls toward $100K those odds increase to 5-7% on Polymarket. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He adds that this shift in odds can translate into a quick 2-4x return on a yes-position if the $120K outcome is realized before month-end. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026.

According to @lookonchain, a trader using a mispricing-focused strategy on Polymarket earned about $92.3K within hours by exploiting short-term odds dislocations (source: @lookonchain). The trader “hai15617” joined today and made 10 predictions on Polymarket, per the source (source: @lookonchain). One trade delivered $99,779 in profit, an 887% return, which offset multiple 100% losing positions and still locked in gains overall (source: @lookonchain). The method did not rely on predicting Bitcoin (BTC) direction; instead, it targeted extreme short-term pricing errors with large position sizing when odds swung too far (source: @lookonchain). In this case, profitability was driven more by pricing errors than by win rate on Polymarket (source: @lookonchain).

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in 8 days after making 53 predictions with 25 wins, 28 losses, and a 47.2% win rate. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the trader focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA), frequently traded spread markets, bought positions mostly at $0.40–$0.60, placed very large bets of $200K to over $1M, and held to settlement with no hedging or scaling. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, winning trades typically returned +60% to +150% while losing trades settled at $0 (-100%), allowing just two or three losses to erase prior gains. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, with this payoff structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable in high-variance spread markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the key lesson is that strict position limits and risk management matter more than conviction because a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account in prediction markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929

According to @OnchainLens, two newly created wallets bought YES shares in Polymarket’s Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 market, with Regimehasfallen spending $30,000 and thecomplicatedguy spending $20,000 while still holding $20,038 USDC on-chain, and @OnchainLens stated the latter is likely to buy more; source: @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026) and Polymarket profile pages at polymarket.com/@Regimehasfallen and polymarket.com/@thecomplicatedguy.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet labeled Regimehasfallen spent 30,000 USD to bet on the Polymarket contract titled Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, with the transaction and label referenced in their January 12, 2026 post on X (source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 12, 2026). According to the referenced Polymarket market page, this contract is hosted on Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market where individual addresses trade event outcomes (source: Polymarket market page linked by @lookonchain). According to the Polymarket market interface, traders can monitor that market page for live pricing and liquidity to track positioning related to this event (source: Polymarket market page).

According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), a newly created wallet deposited $9,069 into Polymarket and bought YES shares on the market titled "Will the US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?" (source: @OnchainLens on X). According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), this order constitutes a single-wallet directional position with $9,069 risk deployed toward a YES outcome in that geopolitical market (source: @OnchainLens on X).

According to @lookonchain, a new wallet named khami placed a Polymarket position that pays out if at least one event occurs by March 31, 2026: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin BTC, MicroStrategy announces holding 750,000 plus BTC, MicroStrategy announces bankruptcy, or MicroStrategy MSTR is added to the S&P 500, source: Lookonchain on X https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010521834861793460; Polymarket https://polymarket.com/0x914e244ae32c19982d96ab50b3b55e487d1feace. This market centralizes event risk around MSTR and BTC, enabling traders to hedge or speculate on MicroStrategy balance sheet actions, index inclusion, or solvency timelines through the contract’s settlement window to 2026-03-31, source: Polymarket https://polymarket.com/0x914e244ae32c19982d96ab50b3b55e487d1feace.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader sb911 made $106K in one month with a low win rate by applying a probability-driven approach to event markets. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573 For trading, this case shows that asymmetric payoff structures and positive expected value can drive outsized PnL in prediction markets even when many positions lose, as characterized by @lookonchain. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573

According to Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet deposited 64,979 dollars into Polymarket and placed two bets, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The wallet spent 14,994 dollars on a YES position for the market Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. It also spent 49,985 dollars on a NO position for the market Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The activity is attributed to address 0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f on Polymarket, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, two newly active wallets placed sizable YES wagers almost simultaneously on Polymarket’s Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 market, with one spending $47,760 at 17 cents and another $33,999 at 15 cents, and the bettors are listed as Goopah and AmericanImperialism, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to @OnchainDataNerd, the combined stake totals about $81,759 and would return $467,199 if the contract resolves YES under Polymarket’s payout rules, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to Polymarket documentation, binary market prices reflect implied probabilities, so entries at 15-17 cents indicate roughly 15-17 percent market-implied odds at the time of execution, source: Polymarket documentation. According to Polymarket documentation, markets are settled in USDC on the Polygon network, meaning these positions are USDC-denominated and executed on Polygon, source: Polymarket documentation.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket profile labeled tiffanytrump lost all seven political and war-related prediction markets for a combined loss of $24,472, impacting trader sentiment around celebrity-named accounts on prediction venues. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025, polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a5066d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 According to @lookonchain, this result indicates the profile does not have insider information despite the suggestive handle, reinforcing that track records matter more than names for trading decisions. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025 According to the source data on Polymarket, the address 0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 shows seven losing outcomes and a net loss of $24,472, which is directly verifiable for position-level due diligence. Source: polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20