Risk assets, including major cryptocurrencies and U.S. equities, experienced a significant surge in optimism following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who hinted that several key trade deals could be finalized before a critical July 9 tariff deadline. The positive sentiment propelled Bitcoin (BTC) to climb over 1%, briefly surpassing the $109,000 mark. The broader crypto market followed suit, with Ethereum (ETH) gaining 1.8% to trade above $2,560. Altcoins also showed considerable strength, as Ripple's XRP and Solana's SOL each posted gains exceeding 2%, while the popular meme token Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied by 3%. This market-wide upswing reflects a classic risk-on environment, where investors shift capital towards higher-growth assets in response to easing macroeconomic fears.

Trade Tensions Ease, Fueling Market Rally

The catalyst for the market's bullish momentum was an interview where Secretary Bessent indicated a high probability of resolving ongoing trade disputes. He stated that the administration is prepared to escalate tariffs back to their April 2 levels by August 1 if negotiations do not conclude successfully by the July 9 deadline. According to a report from Reuters covering his remarks, Bessent noted that President Trump would be communicating this urgency to trading partners, which is expected to accelerate deal-making. This development is crucial for markets that were shaken by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2. That event triggered a sharp sell-off across financial markets, with Bitcoin notably plunging to the $75,000 level before the administration introduced a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations. Since that pause, both traditional markets and crypto have recovered impressively, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs and Bitcoin establishing a strong foothold above $100,000.

Detailed Crypto Price Action and Key Levels

Looking at the specific market data, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) demonstrated robust price action, pushing to a 24-hour high of $109,600 before settling around $109,137. The immediate support for traders to watch sits near the 24-hour low of $107,837. A sustained break above the recent high could signal further upward momentum, while a drop below this support level might indicate a short-term consolidation. Ethereum (ETH/USDT) mirrored this strength, reaching a high of $2,603.59. Its key support is now established near $2,505. The ETH/BTC pair also showed strength, gaining over 1.6%, suggesting that Ethereum was slightly outperforming Bitcoin during this rally. Other notable movers included Solana (SOL/USDT), which climbed to a high of $153.67, and XRP (XRP/USDT), which touched $2.2893. The broad-based nature of the rally, with significant volume in pairs like LINK/BTC and AVAX/BTC, underscores the widespread positive sentiment among crypto traders.

Recession Fears Subside as Economic Outlook Brightens

The improved trade outlook has had a direct impact on economic forecasts, further bolstering investor confidence. On the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, the odds of a U.S. recession occurring in 2025 have plummeted to just 22%, the lowest probability recorded since late February. This marks a dramatic reversal from earlier in the year when fears were rampant. In April, after the tariff announcements and warnings from figures like former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Polymarket odds for a recession had spiked to as high as 66%. Concurrently, major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs had raised their recession probability to 45%. However, the market's adoption of the "TACO" (Trump Always Chicken Out) trade theory—predicting that aggressive tariff threats would ultimately be reversed—proved prescient. As financial conditions have eased and the immediate threat of a trade war has receded, Goldman Sachs has since revised its 12-month recession odds down to 30%. This macroeconomic shift away from recessionary fears provides a powerful tailwind for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies, as investors feel more comfortable allocating capital to the space.