According to @StockMKTNewz, US September retail sales rose 0.2% month over month, undershooting the 0.4% consensus and signaling softer consumer momentum versus expectations (source: @StockMKTNewz; U.S. Census Bureau). According to @StockMKTNewz, September Producer Price Index came in at 2.7% year over year, a touch above the 2.6% forecast and indicating slightly firmer upstream price pressure than anticipated (source: @StockMKTNewz; Bureau of Labor Statistics). For crypto traders, the combination of weaker growth and marginally hotter inflation is a mixed macro surprise that can elevate event-driven volatility in BTC and ETH as rate expectations adjust during US hours (source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @KobeissiLetter citing @Kalshi, prediction markets now expect fewer than two US interest rate cuts in 2025, with the median forecast at 1.9 cuts, sharply down from a peak of four cuts in April. This shift in expectations has driven yields higher, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' rate narrative. For crypto traders, rising yields and reduced rate cut forecasts often signal a risk-off environment, historically leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin and altcoin prices as liquidity tightens and investors seek safer assets. This trend may challenge bullish momentum in the crypto market in the near term. Source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, May 28, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, commodities have been steadily pricing in a US recession over the past two months, reflecting ongoing market concerns about economic slowdown and its direct influence on interest rate expectations. The analysis suggests that a recession scenario is increasingly seen by traders as the key path to achieving sustainably lower rates, which could have significant implications for commodities futures, macro-driven trading strategies, and crypto assets sensitive to rate movements (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).