According to @username, the US treasury ETF $TLT is showing a bullish setup as it forms a weekly swing low, with consensus expecting US long end yields to rise. However, real yields remain at 2% and core inflation (CPI) is projected to decline further due to a recession led by the housing sector, with shelter making up 36% of CPI. This macro backdrop is driving positive sentiment for US treasuries and $TLT, which could attract traders seeking safe-haven assets or portfolio hedges. Source: @username on Twitter.

According to Edward Dowd on Twitter, the US long end yields are expected to continue rising, with real yields currently at 2%. Dowd notes that CPI is projected to decrease further, particularly due to a housing-led recession, as shelter comprises 36% of the CPI basket. He highlights that TLT is forming a weekly swing low, which could signal a reversal in the bond market trend. This development is important for crypto traders, as falling yields and lower CPI may increase risk appetite in digital assets like BTC and ETH, affecting capital flows into the cryptocurrency market (source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, June 12, 2025).

According to Edward Dowd, a shift towards risk-off sentiment is emerging, with $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) highlighted as a potential beneficiary (source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, May 30, 2025). Historically, risk-off moves drive capital from equities and risk assets into safe havens like US Treasuries, leading to a rise in $TLT. For cryptocurrency traders, this trend typically correlates with increased volatility and potential downside for crypto assets as liquidity is withdrawn from high-risk markets (source: Phinance Technologies Economic Report). Monitoring $TLT price action can provide early signals for crypto market direction, helping traders adjust positions accordingly.

According to Eric Balchunas on Twitter, SPY rose 1.5% and TLT climbed 1% on May 27, 2025, signaling a simultaneous rally in both equities and long-duration bonds (source: Eric Balchunas, Twitter). Historically, such parallel moves indicate broad risk appetite and increased liquidity, which traders often interpret as bullish for risk assets, including key cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This shift in market dynamics may lead to renewed confidence in crypto markets, as traditional safe havens and equities move higher together, potentially attracting capital inflows into digital assets (source: Eric Balchunas, Twitter). Traders should closely watch for spillover effects into major crypto assets, as these cross-asset correlations could impact short-term trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, their March 6th alert for premium members to build a position in TLT has resulted in significant gains as the 10-year note yield dropped below 4% as predicted. This drop has sharply increased bond positions, demonstrating successful market timing and strategy. Investors following this alert have seen substantial returns, highlighting the importance of yield trend analysis in bond trading.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, they posted an alert on March 6th for their premium members to take long positions in TLT, predicting a drop in the 10-year note yield. As a result, TLT is now trading sharply higher, indicating the accuracy of their forecast. This demonstrates the potential for profitable trading strategies based on yield predictions. Source: The Kobeissi Letter.