According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi’s event markets are now pricing three Federal Reserve rate moves in 2025 as the most likely outcome after a busy morning of U.S. economic data (source: @StockMKTNewz on X; source: Kalshi market pricing). Crypto traders monitor this implied FOMC path because BTC and ETH performance has shown sensitivity to shifts in U.S. yields and the dollar, with analyses documenting inverse relationships across multiple regimes (sources: Coinbase Institutional Research; Kaiko Research).

According to Michaël van de Poppe, a decrease in Gold, US10Y & US02Y yields, Brent, and DXY, combined with an increase in CNH/USD, suggests a bullish trend for Ethereum. Traders should monitor these indicators for potential risk-on market conditions, where investors are more inclined towards high-risk investments like cryptocurrencies.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, US Yields continue to rally and are nearing a new high at 5.00%, following the FED's 75bps rate cuts in 2024.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, US Yields are rallying close to 5.00% following the Fed's 75bps rate cuts in 2024. Key factors to watch include weaker labor markets and Trump's inauguration.