According to The Kobeissi Letter, US private payrolls fell by an average of 13,500 per week over the four weeks ending November 8, worsening from a 2,500 decline per week in the prior period (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this deterioration signals a weak labor market and supports the view that the Federal Reserve must continue cutting interest rates, a key macro input for near-term trading decisions (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US private payrolls declined by 9,000 in September when excluding leisure, hospitality, education, and healthcare, even as total private payrolls rose by 97,000, indicating hiring concentration in those service categories, source: The Kobeissi Letter. This also marks the fifth consecutive decline on that ex-sector basis, which The Kobeissi Letter describes as a weakening beneath the surface of the job market, source: The Kobeissi Letter.