According to @KobeissiLetter, US rent prices fell 0.2% month over month in November to $1,706, the largest November decline in at least 15 years, marking a fifth straight month of flat or negative changes, while annual rent growth slowed to 0.7% from 1.5% in Q1 2025, according to @KobeissiLetter. Because shelter accounts for roughly one third of the CPI basket, the rent downtrend is material for inflation risk, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Market rent gauges typically lead CPI shelter by about 6 to 12 months, suggesting potential shelter disinflation into 2026 if the trend persists, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Softer shelter inflation tends to ease rate expectations and real yields, a backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger performance in risk assets including BTC and ETH around softer CPI prints, according to Federal Reserve communications on the policy reaction function and Kaiko market data.

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. national apartment rents fell 0.31% month over month in October, the steepest October decline in over 15 years. Source: @KobeissiLetter. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline as elevated supply weighed on prices, with three of the five largest monthly rent drops in the past 15 years occurring in August, September, and October 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. Annual rent growth slowed to 0.8%, down from 1.5% at the start of 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. All regions declined in October, led by the West at -0.53% MoM, followed by the South at -0.28%, the Northeast at -0.24%, and the Midwest at -0.18%. Source: @KobeissiLetter. Shelter is the largest component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index and includes rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent, so rent trends are closely watched for inflation assessment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because the Federal Reserve bases policy decisions on inflation data, rent disinflation is a key input for rate expectations and broader financial conditions tracked by traders. Source: Federal Reserve. These macro conditions form the backdrop for risk assets, making the rent downtrend relevant for liquidity-sensitive markets, including cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve.