Bitcoin Surges Past $115.7K: On-Chain Metrics Reveal Strong Bullish Conviction

Bitcoin (BTC) has just shattered the $115.7K barrier, marking a significant milestone in its ongoing bull run, but savvy traders know that the real story lies beneath the surface in the on-chain data. According to crypto analyst Cas Abbé's recent insights shared on September 13, 2025, this price surge isn't just random volatility—it's backed by robust fundamentals that point to sustained upward momentum. With 76% of BTC supply now held by long-term holders, we're witnessing the strongest sign of market conviction in years. This rock-solid base suggests that sellers are scarce, creating a supply squeeze that could propel prices even higher. Traders should watch for key resistance levels around $120K, where previous highs might test this rally, but the data indicates plenty of room for growth before hitting overbought territory.

Diving deeper into the metrics, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator sits at 0.54, placing Bitcoin firmly in the 'optimism' zone without venturing into euphoria. This is a classic setup for continued gains, as historical patterns show that markets often expand when sentiment is positive but not overheated. For traders, this means monitoring support at $110K, where a pullback could offer attractive entry points for long positions. On-chain activity is cooling off, with active addresses down 6% and adjusted volume dropping 26% to $17.3B, but this isn't a red flag—it's consolidation. Such periods frequently precede explosive expansions, especially when paired with rising open interest at $79.8B, signaling fresh capital flowing into derivatives. If you're trading BTC/USD or BTC/USDT pairs, keep an eye on trading volumes spiking above $20B as a confirmation of breakout potential.

Liquidations and Distribution: Fueling the Upside

Liquidations are telling a lopsided story, with $49M in short positions wiped out compared to just $3M in longs, according to the same analysis. This imbalance shows the market is still battling against the upside, which historically fuels further rallies as shorts get squeezed. Combined with the fact that the top 100 holders control only 14.9% of the supply, Bitcoin remains a widely distributed asset, reducing the risk of whale manipulation. This distribution enhances liquidity and makes BTC a more resilient trading vehicle. From a trading perspective, this setup favors swing traders looking to capitalize on volatility—consider options strategies around $115K strikes or futures contracts with leverage, but always manage risk with stop-losses below recent lows like $112K to protect against sudden reversals.

Putting it all together, these on-chain signals—locked supply, returning speculators, resetting metrics, and cautious sentiment—create the perfect storm for major upside. Unlike euphoric peaks where everyone piles in, this phase thrives on uncertainty, drawing in institutional flows and retail interest alike. Market indicators like the rising open interest suggest both short-term and long-term trends are turning bullish, potentially correlating with broader crypto market movements in ETH, SOL, and altcoins. For stock market correlations, keep in mind how Bitcoin's strength often influences tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, where AI-driven stocks could see sympathetic rallies. Traders should analyze multiple pairs, such as BTC/ETH for relative strength, and track on-chain metrics via tools like Glassnode for real-time validation. Overall, this isn't just a price pump; it's a data-driven opportunity for strategic positioning in what could be the next leg up in the bull cycle.

To optimize trading strategies, focus on key data points: the $115.7K crossing on September 13, 2025, with NUPL at 0.54 and open interest at $79.8B. If volumes rebound from $17.3B, it could signal a push toward $130K resistance. Sentiment remains optimistic, offering room to run without immediate euphoria risks. Institutional flows, evident in rising derivatives interest, point to sustained buying pressure. For those exploring cross-market plays, Bitcoin's momentum might boost AI tokens like FET or RNDR, tying into broader tech narratives. Remember, while the base is solid with 76% long-term holding, always incorporate stop-losses and position sizing to navigate volatility. This consolidation phase, with cooled activity, often leads to expansions—position accordingly for potential gains in the coming weeks.