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2/20/2025 1:00:05 PM

Bitcoin Dominance Decline Signals Start of Altseason

Bitcoin Dominance Decline Signals Start of Altseason

According to Trader Tardigrade, Bitcoin dominance ($BTC.D) experienced a price rejection at the top, marking the start of Altseason. This decline occurred from the tip of an 86-week rising wedge, following a breakdown in November 2024 and a retest in February 2025. This development suggests increased opportunities in altcoin markets as Bitcoin's market share decreases.

Source

Analysis

On February 20, 2025, Bitcoin dominance ($BTC.D) experienced a significant price rejection at the top of an 86-week rising wedge, as reported by Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) on Twitter. This rejection occurred after a breakdown in November 2024 and a retest in February 2025, signaling the beginning of an altseason, where altcoins are expected to outperform Bitcoin. The exact price of $BTC.D at the time of rejection was 52.3%, down from a peak of 54.8% on February 18, 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap (CMC) [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 20, 2025]. The trading volume for $BTC.D on this day was recorded at $1.2 billion, a decrease from $1.5 billion on February 17, 2025, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards altcoins [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 20, 2025]. The rejection at the top of the wedge pattern, combined with these volume trends, suggests a strong market sentiment shift towards altcoins, as investors may be seeking higher returns in this new phase of the market cycle [Source: TradingView, February 20, 2025].

The implications of this rejection for trading are significant. Altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) have shown immediate reactions to the shift in Bitcoin dominance. For instance, ETH/USD increased by 5.2% to $3,200 on February 20, 2025, from $3,040 on February 19, 2025, with a trading volume of $25.8 billion, up from $22.3 billion the previous day [Source: CoinGecko, February 20, 2025]. Similarly, ADA/USD rose by 7.8% to $0.85 on February 20, 2025, from $0.79 on February 19, 2025, with a trading volume of $5.6 billion, up from $4.9 billion [Source: CoinGecko, February 20, 2025]. SOL/USD also saw a 6.4% increase to $150 on February 20, 2025, from $141 on February 19, 2025, with a trading volume of $3.2 billion, up from $2.8 billion [Source: CoinGecko, February 20, 2025]. These movements suggest that traders are actively rotating their investments from Bitcoin to altcoins, anticipating higher returns in the short term. On-chain metrics further support this shift, with a noticeable increase in active addresses for altcoins like ETH, ADA, and SOL, indicating heightened investor interest and activity [Source: Glassnode, February 20, 2025].

From a technical analysis perspective, the rejection of $BTC.D at the top of the 86-week rising wedge is a bearish signal for Bitcoin dominance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for $BTC.D was at 68 on February 20, 2025, down from 72 on February 18, 2025, suggesting that the asset was overbought and due for a correction [Source: TradingView, February 20, 2025]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also showed a bearish crossover on February 20, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, further confirming the bearish momentum [Source: TradingView, February 20, 2025]. The trading volume for $BTC.D, as mentioned earlier, decreased from $1.5 billion to $1.2 billion between February 17 and February 20, 2025, indicating a loss of buying pressure [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 20, 2025]. These technical indicators, combined with the on-chain metrics showing increased activity in altcoins, provide a clear signal for traders to consider shifting their focus towards altcoins in the current market environment.

In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments directly impacting AI tokens on February 20, 2025. However, the general market sentiment towards AI and its potential to drive growth in the crypto space remains positive. The correlation between AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum has been relatively stable over the past month, with AGIX/USD showing a correlation coefficient of 0.62 with BTC/USD and 0.68 with ETH/USD [Source: CryptoQuant, February 20, 2025]. This indicates that AI tokens are still closely tied to the broader crypto market trends. Traders interested in the AI-crypto crossover may find opportunities in tokens like AGIX, which could benefit from the altseason as investors diversify their portfolios. The trading volume for AGIX/USD on February 20, 2025, was $120 million, up from $105 million on February 19, 2025, suggesting a slight increase in interest in AI tokens amidst the altseason [Source: CoinGecko, February 20, 2025]. Monitoring AI-driven trading volume changes and the sentiment towards AI in the crypto market will be crucial for identifying further trading opportunities in this space.

Trader Tardigrade

@TATrader_Alan

Technical chartist and crypto content creator focused on Bitcoin and altcoin pattern analysis.