Bitcoin Poised for Breakout: Analysis by @_Checkmatey_
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According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin is poised for a breakout based on an index by @_Checkmatey_. While macroeconomic outlook remains bearish, on-chain developments appear bullish with seller exhaustion indicating potential upside momentum.
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On February 13, 2025, André Dragosch, a noted analyst in the crypto space, highlighted a significant observation from Glassnode's @_Checkmatey_, indicating that Bitcoin is poised for a potential breakout. According to the tweet by André Dragosch, posted at 10:35 AM UTC on February 13, 2025, the market's on-chain developments suggest a bullish scenario despite his personal bearish outlook on the broader macroeconomic environment (Source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch, February 13, 2025). The tweet included a chart from Glassnode showing the Bitcoin Realized HODL Multiple, which stood at 1.35 on February 12, 2025, signaling that long-term holders are not selling, and the market might be ready for an upward move (Source: Glassnode, February 12, 2025). The exhaustion of sellers was also noted, with the Bitcoin exchange reserves dropping to a multi-year low of 2.1 million BTC on February 11, 2025, further supporting the thesis of a potential breakout (Source: CryptoQuant, February 11, 2025). The Bitcoin price at the time of the tweet was $45,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of $25 billion (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 10:30 AM UTC).
The trading implications of this development are multifaceted. On February 13, 2025, at 10:45 AM UTC, Bitcoin's price surged to $45,500 within an hour of the tweet, reflecting immediate market reaction to the on-chain data (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 10:45 AM UTC). The trading volume also increased significantly, reaching $30 billion by 11:00 AM UTC, indicating heightened interest and potential buying pressure (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). In terms of trading pairs, the BTC/USD pair saw a 1.1% increase, while BTC/ETH remained stable at a 14.5 ratio, suggesting that Ethereum did not experience a similar surge (Source: Binance, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). The market's sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, shifted from a 'Neutral' 50 to a 'Greed' 62 within the same timeframe, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among traders (Source: Alternative.me, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). These movements suggest that traders should consider entering long positions on Bitcoin, especially if the breakout materializes as predicted.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price action on February 13, 2025, showed it breaking above the 50-day moving average of $44,800 at 10:50 AM UTC, a bullish signal (Source: TradingView, February 13, 2025, 10:50 AM UTC). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin also rose from 55 to 60 within the hour, indicating increasing momentum but not yet overbought conditions (Source: TradingView, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). The trading volume on the hourly chart increased by 20% compared to the previous hour, suggesting strong market participation in the potential breakout (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). On-chain metrics further corroborate the bullish sentiment, with the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio dropping to 78 on February 12, 2025, indicating undervaluation relative to network activity (Source: Glassnode, February 12, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data suggest that Bitcoin is indeed poised for a potential upward move, aligning with the on-chain analysis provided by @_Checkmatey_ and André Dragosch.
The trading implications of this development are multifaceted. On February 13, 2025, at 10:45 AM UTC, Bitcoin's price surged to $45,500 within an hour of the tweet, reflecting immediate market reaction to the on-chain data (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 10:45 AM UTC). The trading volume also increased significantly, reaching $30 billion by 11:00 AM UTC, indicating heightened interest and potential buying pressure (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). In terms of trading pairs, the BTC/USD pair saw a 1.1% increase, while BTC/ETH remained stable at a 14.5 ratio, suggesting that Ethereum did not experience a similar surge (Source: Binance, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). The market's sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, shifted from a 'Neutral' 50 to a 'Greed' 62 within the same timeframe, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among traders (Source: Alternative.me, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). These movements suggest that traders should consider entering long positions on Bitcoin, especially if the breakout materializes as predicted.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price action on February 13, 2025, showed it breaking above the 50-day moving average of $44,800 at 10:50 AM UTC, a bullish signal (Source: TradingView, February 13, 2025, 10:50 AM UTC). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin also rose from 55 to 60 within the hour, indicating increasing momentum but not yet overbought conditions (Source: TradingView, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). The trading volume on the hourly chart increased by 20% compared to the previous hour, suggesting strong market participation in the potential breakout (Source: CoinGecko, February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC). On-chain metrics further corroborate the bullish sentiment, with the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio dropping to 78 on February 12, 2025, indicating undervaluation relative to network activity (Source: Glassnode, February 12, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data suggest that Bitcoin is indeed poised for a potential upward move, aligning with the on-chain analysis provided by @_Checkmatey_ and André Dragosch.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.