Bitcoin: Polymarket Gives 55% Odds of Sub-$50K Drop

Polymarket assigns a 55% probability that Bitcoin crashes below $50000 before year-end 2026.

BTC trades at $64608.38 inside Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $64950.4 while the 4h EMA50 at $63818.09 acts as immediate support and the EMA200 at $69976.49 caps upside. MACD golden cross at 443.23 keeps the structure bullish yet RSI at 63.63 leaves room for a healthy pullback toward the 50-EMA before any continuation higher. Traders watching this BTC price prediction and potential crypto market crash scenario now layer the Bitcoin price forecast 2026 against these confluence levels.