As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the end of 2025, traders and investors are closely monitoring key technical indicators that could shape the cryptocurrency's trajectory into 2026. According to cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the critical confirmation lies in whether BTC can maintain its position above the 20-month moving average (MA). If the monthly candle closes above this level, and ideally surpasses $90,000, it could signal a robust bullish momentum, potentially driving prices toward $105,000 to $110,000 in the early months of the new year. This analysis underscores the importance of long-term moving averages in cryptocurrency trading, serving as vital support and resistance zones that often dictate major trend reversals or continuations.

Technical Analysis of BTC's 20-Month Moving Average

In the realm of BTC trading, the 20-month MA has historically acted as a reliable barometer for market health. As of December 26, 2025, BTC's price action is testing this indicator, with recent charts showing consolidation around key levels. Traders should note that a close above the 20-month MA would not only confirm bullish sentiment but also align with broader market cycles observed in previous bull runs. For instance, during the 2021 surge, BTC's adherence to similar moving averages preceded significant rallies. Current on-chain metrics, such as increased whale accumulation and rising trading volumes on pairs like BTC/USDT, suggest growing institutional interest. If BTC holds this support, resistance levels at $95,000 and $100,000 could come into play, offering short-term trading opportunities for scalpers and swing traders alike. However, a failure to close above $90,000 might lead to retests of lower supports around $80,000, emphasizing the need for risk management strategies like stop-loss orders below the MA.

Potential Price Targets and Trading Strategies

Looking ahead, a successful monthly close above $90,000 could catalyze a strong start to 2026, as highlighted by van de Poppe. This scenario might see BTC targeting $105,000 to $110,000, driven by factors such as anticipated regulatory clarity and macroeconomic shifts. Traders can capitalize on this by monitoring correlated assets; for example, Ethereum (ETH) often mirrors BTC's movements, with ETH/BTC pairs providing hedging opportunities. On-chain data reveals heightened transaction volumes and a spike in active addresses, indicating sustained network activity that supports upward momentum. For those engaging in futures trading, leveraging positions with tight take-profit levels at $105,000 could yield substantial returns, while spot traders might consider dollar-cost averaging into dips. It's essential to watch trading volumes, which have averaged over $50 billion daily on major exchanges, as a surge could validate the breakout.

From a broader market perspective, BTC's performance has implications for the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, including altcoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. Institutional flows, evidenced by recent inflows into BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), are bolstering confidence. If the 20-month MA hold is confirmed, it could trigger a ripple effect, boosting sentiment across stocks with crypto exposure, such as tech firms investing in blockchain. Traders should also consider external factors like interest rate decisions, which historically influence risk assets like BTC. In summary, while the outlook is optimistic for a run to $110,000, vigilance is key—combining technical analysis with fundamental insights ensures informed trading decisions in this volatile market.

To optimize trading approaches, consider diversifying into BTC perpetual contracts or options that expire post-monthly close. Historical data from 2024 shows that similar MA crossovers led to 20-30% gains within quarters, providing a precedent for current setups. Always backtest strategies using tools like TradingView for precise entry and exit points, focusing on volume-weighted average prices (VWAP) for intraday trades. As we edge closer to the monthly close, staying updated on real-time price feeds will be crucial for capturing emerging opportunities in the BTC market.