BTC After FOMC: CryptoMichNL Warns Post-FOMC Traps, Eyes 1-2 Week Move; 92K Break to Target 100K
According to @CryptoMichNL, the initial post-FOMC dips in BTC this year are largely long-liquidation flushes and often trap traders, so the immediate move after the meeting should carry limited weight for positioning, source: @CryptoMichNL, Dec 11, 2025. He expects the real directional move to emerge in the next 1-2 weeks, which will shape the outlook heading toward 2026, source: @CryptoMichNL, Dec 11, 2025. He maintains that the broader trend remains intact; a clean break above 92K would open a retest of 100K, while a decisive break of recent lows would invalidate the thesis, source: @CryptoMichNL, Dec 11, 2025. He adds that the Federal Reserve’s policy shift will not translate into immediate market impact and that effects take time to filter through, source: @CryptoMichNL, Dec 11, 2025.
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Bitcoin traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's latest moves, especially as the FED prepares to update its monetary policy settings from 2021 levels to those more aligned with 2025 economic conditions. According to cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe, this shift in the FED's approach—often likened to updating a 'printer' for money supply—won't trigger an immediate market reaction. Instead, these changes typically unfold over time, influencing broader market dynamics gradually. This perspective is crucial for BTC traders navigating post-FOMC volatility, where Bitcoin has consistently dipped after every Federal Open Market Committee meeting in 2025. These downward moves are primarily designed to flush out long positions through liquidations, trapping over-optimistic traders and creating short-term price traps.
Understanding Post-FOMC Bitcoin Price Dynamics
In the realm of cryptocurrency trading, timing is everything, and the immediate aftermath of FOMC announcements often leads to misleading price actions. Van de Poppe highlights that Bitcoin's declines following these meetings this year have been tactical maneuvers to liquidate longs, rather than signals of a fundamental shift. For instance, traders should avoid placing too much emphasis on these knee-jerk reactions, as they are engineered to trap participants on the wrong side of the trade. Looking ahead, the real market direction is expected to emerge within the next 1-2 weeks, providing clearer insights into Bitcoin's trajectory heading into 2026. This delayed response aligns with historical patterns where monetary policy adjustments percolate through financial systems, affecting asset prices like BTC over extended periods. From a trading standpoint, monitoring key support and resistance levels becomes essential during this window. Bitcoin must hold above recent lows to maintain its upward trend, with a break above $92,000 potentially paving the way for a retest of the $100,000 milestone.
Key Trading Indicators and Market Sentiment
Diving deeper into trading analysis, the overall trend for Bitcoin remains intact, supporting a bullish thesis despite short-term fluctuations. Van de Poppe emphasizes that Bitcoin shouldn't breach its established lows, as doing so could invalidate the current uptrend and trigger further downside. Instead, a decisive move above $92K would signal strength, opening doors to higher targets like $100K. Traders should focus on on-chain metrics such as trading volumes and liquidation data to gauge sentiment. For example, high liquidation volumes post-FOMC often indicate over-leveraged positions being wiped out, creating buying opportunities for savvy investors. In terms of market indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages could provide confirmation: an RSI above 50 would reinforce bullish momentum, while a golden cross in moving averages might signal sustained upside. Additionally, correlating this with stock market performance—such as movements in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq—offers cross-market insights, as FED policies impact both traditional equities and cryptocurrencies. Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs have been a key driver, and any uptick in these could amplify the push toward $100K.
From a broader cryptocurrency market perspective, this FED update could influence altcoins and related trading pairs. Ethereum (ETH), for instance, often mirrors Bitcoin's movements, and traders might look for ETH/BTC pair correlations to identify relative strength. If Bitcoin breaks $92K, it could spark a rally in altcoins, boosting trading volumes across exchanges. However, risks remain: if lows are broken, support levels around $80K-$85K might come into play, potentially leading to increased volatility. Traders are advised to use stop-loss orders and monitor 24-hour price changes closely. The thesis of continued growth into 2026 holds, but patience is key—avoid chasing immediate post-FOMC dips and wait for confirmation in the coming weeks. This approach not only mitigates risks but also positions traders for potential high-reward opportunities in the evolving crypto landscape.
Strategic Trading Opportunities Amid FED Shifts
As we analyze potential trading strategies, consider the interplay between FED policies and cryptocurrency markets. The anticipated gradual impact means building positions during dips could yield benefits, especially if Bitcoin respects its trendlines. Support at recent lows acts as a critical barrier; holding there would validate the bullish outlook. For those eyeing $100K, breaking $92K with strong volume—say, exceeding average daily volumes by 20-30%—would be a green light for long entries. On the flip side, stock market correlations are vital: if equities rally on softer FED stance, Bitcoin could follow suit, attracting more institutional capital. Remember, these insights are drawn from observed patterns in 2025 FOMC reactions, urging traders to blend technical analysis with macroeconomic awareness for informed decisions.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast