According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin ETFs have resumed buying more than the daily BTC supply (source: @caprioleio). The daily Bitcoin supply is the new BTC issued via block rewards, approximately 450 BTC per day since the April 2024 halving reduced the subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block (source: Bitcoin.org).

According to @caprioleio, a rules-based strategy that only buys BTC when Bitcoin ETF net purchases exceed the network’s daily supply achieved a 127% cumulative return with lower risk in backtests, source: X post by @caprioleio on 2025-08-19 and Capriole live chart capriole.com/charts/?chart=…. The signal times entries by comparing ETF net flow to estimated daily issuance, offering a data-driven filter for BTC exposure, source: @caprioleio and Capriole live chart capriole.com/charts/?chart=…. Traders can monitor the live chart to align positions with periods of ETF demand dominance over supply, which the source highlights as historically favorable in the backtest, source: @caprioleio and Capriole live chart capriole.com/charts/?chart=….