According to @caprioleio, BTC’s terminal value should be discounted today by the same probability assigned to a quantum computing “Q-Day” within the next three years (e.g., a 10% Q-Day risk implies a 10% discount), because he estimates Bitcoin would require roughly 1 year to reach upgrade consensus and 1 year to fully deploy a solution, totaling 2-3 years (source: @caprioleio, Nov 18, 2025). He further states that until consensus on a Bitcoin upgrade is reached, BTC’s terminal value declines daily as the quantum threat rises (source: @caprioleio, Nov 18, 2025).