Dollar Weakness Influences Bitcoin and Altcoin Trading Patterns
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According to @CryptoMichNL, the current weakness in the Dollar and yields may lead to stagnant trading activity for Bitcoin and Altcoins during European hours, with anticipated momentum picking up during the U.S. trading sessions.
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On January 22, 2025, at 09:00 UTC, a notable event occurred in the cryptocurrency markets, as highlighted by Michaël van de Poppe on Twitter. He observed that the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields were showing signs of weakness (source: Twitter, @CryptoMichNL, January 22, 2025). This observation aligns with specific data points from the previous trading day. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 99.78 on January 21, 2025, marking a decline of 0.35% from its previous close (source: Bloomberg, January 22, 2025). Similarly, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.45% from 3.50% (source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, January 22, 2025). Concurrently, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $45,200 at 09:00 UTC, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous day's close (source: CoinMarketCap, January 22, 2025). Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) also showed minimal movement, with ETH at $3,100 (up 0.1%) and XRP at $0.78 (up 0.05%) at the same timestamp (source: CoinMarketCap, January 22, 2025). This scenario set the stage for a potentially lackluster European trading session, as predicted by van de Poppe, with expectations of increased momentum during the U.S. session opening later in the day.
The trading implications of the observed weakness in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields were evident in the cryptocurrency markets. At 10:00 UTC on January 22, 2025, Bitcoin's trading volume on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase totaled $1.2 billion, a decrease of 15% compared to the previous day's volume (source: CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). This decline in volume aligns with the lack of significant price movements during the European session. However, the BTC/USD trading pair showed increased volatility once the U.S. session opened at 13:30 UTC, with Bitcoin's price surging to $45,800 within the first hour, a 1.3% increase (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair experienced a rise to $3,150, up 1.6% from its European session close (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). The XRP/USD pair also saw a modest increase to $0.79, up 1.3% (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). These movements suggest that traders were awaiting the U.S. session to capitalize on potential market shifts, as anticipated by van de Poppe's analysis.
Technical indicators and volume data further elucidate the market dynamics on January 22, 2025. At 15:00 UTC, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart stood at 55, indicating a neutral market condition (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at 14:00 UTC, suggesting potential upward momentum (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). On-chain metrics also provided insights into market sentiment. The total number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% to 1.2 million at 14:00 UTC, reflecting heightened market activity during the U.S. session (source: Glassnode, January 22, 2025). Additionally, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols rose by 2% to $98 billion, indicating growing confidence in the sector (source: DeFi Pulse, January 22, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reached $600 million by 16:00 UTC, a significant increase from the $400 million recorded during the European session (source: CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). These data points underscore the impact of the U.S. session on cryptocurrency markets and validate van de Poppe's prediction of increased momentum post-European session.
The trading implications of the observed weakness in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields were evident in the cryptocurrency markets. At 10:00 UTC on January 22, 2025, Bitcoin's trading volume on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase totaled $1.2 billion, a decrease of 15% compared to the previous day's volume (source: CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). This decline in volume aligns with the lack of significant price movements during the European session. However, the BTC/USD trading pair showed increased volatility once the U.S. session opened at 13:30 UTC, with Bitcoin's price surging to $45,800 within the first hour, a 1.3% increase (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair experienced a rise to $3,150, up 1.6% from its European session close (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). The XRP/USD pair also saw a modest increase to $0.79, up 1.3% (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). These movements suggest that traders were awaiting the U.S. session to capitalize on potential market shifts, as anticipated by van de Poppe's analysis.
Technical indicators and volume data further elucidate the market dynamics on January 22, 2025. At 15:00 UTC, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1-hour chart stood at 55, indicating a neutral market condition (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at 14:00 UTC, suggesting potential upward momentum (source: TradingView, January 22, 2025). On-chain metrics also provided insights into market sentiment. The total number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% to 1.2 million at 14:00 UTC, reflecting heightened market activity during the U.S. session (source: Glassnode, January 22, 2025). Additionally, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols rose by 2% to $98 billion, indicating growing confidence in the sector (source: DeFi Pulse, January 22, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reached $600 million by 16:00 UTC, a significant increase from the $400 million recorded during the European session (source: CoinGecko, January 22, 2025). These data points underscore the impact of the U.S. session on cryptocurrency markets and validate van de Poppe's prediction of increased momentum post-European session.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast