According to @garyblack00, a TSLA and SpaceX merger would require issuing roughly 35% new TSLA shares to absorb about $800B of SpaceX equity into a combined ~$2.3T company given TSLA at ~200x PE and SpaceX at ~400x, resulting in about $8B adjusted net income with TSLA at ~$6B and SpaceX at ~$2B. He adds that roughly 25% of combined profits would come from space travel and communications, which he believes many TSLA institutional holders would reject and sell into, absent large cost or revenue synergies for TSLA. He notes the industrial logic is weak because it mainly lets TSLA fund SpaceX’s negative cash flows, which he argues is not TSLA shareholders’ responsibility, and he points out TSLA has lagged the Nasdaq 100 over one year (+12% vs +20%) and five years (+48% vs +90%), reinforcing his view that added uncertainty could pressure the stock. Source: @garyblack00 on X.

According to the source, Tesla shareholders approved a plan to grant Elon Musk shares worth nearly $1 trillion tied to performance goals, but traders should wait for an official Tesla Investor Relations update or an SEC Form 8-K before positioning. source: Tesla Investor Relations; SEC Form 8-K Item 5.02 Material executive compensation actions must be disclosed promptly on Form 8-K Item 5.02, so monitoring EDGAR and Tesla IR is essential to verify terms, timing, and any equity dilution that could affect TSLA pricing and options implied volatility. source: SEC Form 8-K Item 5.02 If confirmed, a large equity-based award can increase prospective dilution and shift valuation multiples in TSLA, with spillover to crypto risk sentiment given Tesla’s disclosed Bitcoin exposure history and the sensitivity of DOGE to Musk-related headlines. source: Tesla Form 10-K 2021 and subsequent filings on digital assets; Reuters coverage of DOGE price swings around Musk public appearances in 2021