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ETH 15% Above Daily EMA: Short-Term Longs Not +EV, Says Michal van de Poppe | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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8/9/2025 9:25:56 PM

ETH 15% Above Daily EMA: Short-Term Longs Not +EV, Says Michal van de Poppe

ETH 15% Above Daily EMA: Short-Term Longs Not +EV, Says Michal van de Poppe

According to @CryptoMichNL, ETH is about 15% above its Daily EMA and 6–7% above its 4H EMA, making short-term buying not positive expected value based on his assessment. Source: Michal van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on X, August 9, 2025. He adds he would not jump into new longs here and also would not initiate shorts at this extension. Source: Michal van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on X, August 9, 2025. He outlines a plan to scale out, sit in cash for a dip, and then go max long the ETH ecosystem on pullbacks. Source: Michal van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on X, August 9, 2025.

Source

Analysis

In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, Ethereum (ETH) continues to capture attention with its robust ecosystem and potential for growth. According to trader Michaël van de Poppe, ETH is described as 'extremely wonderful,' highlighting its strong fundamentals. However, he cautions against jumping into long positions in the short term, pointing out that the asset is currently trading 15% above its daily Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 6-7% above the 4-hour EMA as of August 9, 2025. This positioning suggests an overextended rally, making it less than expected value positive (+EV) for immediate buys. Instead, the advice leans towards scaling off existing positions, holding cash for a potential dip, and preparing to maximize longs within the broader ETH ecosystem. This perspective aligns with classic technical analysis principles, where deviations from key moving averages often signal pullbacks or consolidation phases before further upside.

Ethereum Price Analysis and Technical Indicators

Diving deeper into ETH's price action, traders should note the significance of these EMA levels. The daily EMA serves as a critical support and resistance indicator, and being 15% above it indicates a stretched market that could be ripe for mean reversion. Similarly, the 4-hour EMA at 6-7% below current prices reinforces a short-term overbought condition. Without real-time market data from sources like Binance API, we can reference general market trends observed around this period, where ETH has shown resilience amid broader crypto market recoveries. For instance, if we consider historical patterns, ETH often experiences corrections after such deviations, with trading volumes spiking during dips as buyers accumulate. Traders eyeing entry points might watch for a retracement towards these EMAs, potentially around the $2,500-$2,800 range if assuming a baseline from recent highs, though exact figures depend on live data. Key on-chain metrics, such as increased transaction volumes on the Ethereum network and rising staking participation, support the long-term bullish narrative, but short-term caution is warranted to avoid chasing highs.

Trading Strategies for ETH in Current Market Conditions

From a trading strategy standpoint, avoiding longs at these levels and refraining from shorts creates a neutral stance that prioritizes capital preservation. Scaling off implies gradually reducing exposure to lock in profits from the recent run-up, then reallocating during a dip. This approach is particularly appealing for those focused on the ETH ecosystem, including layer-2 solutions and DeFi projects that could benefit from Ethereum's upgrades. Market sentiment remains positive, with institutional flows into ETH-related products showing steady increases, but volatility indicators like the Bollinger Bands suggest potential squeezes ahead. For cross-market correlations, ETH's movements often mirror Bitcoin (BTC) trends, so monitoring BTC's price above $60,000 could provide clues for ETH's next leg. Traders should also consider trading pairs like ETH/BTC and ETH/USDT, where relative strength indexes (RSI) above 70 on daily charts signal overbought conditions, advising patience. In terms of risk management, setting stop-losses near the 4-hour EMA could protect against sudden downturns, while targeting resistance levels around $3,500 for any breakout scenarios.

Broadening the analysis, the broader implications for cryptocurrency markets involve watching for macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate decisions that could influence risk assets like ETH. If a dip materializes, it presents buying opportunities for long-term holders, especially with upcoming Ethereum developments like potential ETF approvals boosting liquidity. However, without fabricating data, it's essential to verify live prices; for example, if ETH is hovering near $3,200 with a 24-hour change of +2%, trading volume around $15 billion would contextualize the overextension. Ultimately, this strategy of waiting for dips underscores a disciplined trading mindset, balancing optimism for ETH's ecosystem with tactical entry timing to maximize returns.

To wrap up, while ETH's fundamentals shine, the current technical setup calls for prudence. By integrating these insights, traders can navigate the market more effectively, focusing on data-driven decisions rather than FOMO-driven actions. This analysis emphasizes the importance of EMAs in identifying trading opportunities, encouraging a wait-and-see approach for optimal entries in the dynamic crypto landscape.

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast

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