Ethereum Price Analysis: Unrealized Profits Signal Potential Upside to $4.9K Amid Lower Market Euphoria

As Ethereum (ETH) trades near its March 2024 highs, on-chain data from analytics provider Glassnode reveals a fascinating divergence in market dynamics. According to a recent update from Glassnode on July 31, 2025, despite ETH approaching those peak levels, unrealized profits among holders are significantly lower than they were back in March. This metric, known as Relative Unrealized Profit, reached +2 standard deviations (σ) during the March rally when ETH hit $3.98K. Today, it's only nearing +1σ, suggesting that the current price action lacks the same level of profit-taking pressure and euphoria that characterized the earlier surge. For traders, this implies substantial room for upside, with a potential move to +2σ now pointing toward an ETH price of approximately $4.9K. This analysis highlights key trading opportunities, as lower unrealized profits could mean reduced selling pressure and a more sustainable rally ahead.

Diving deeper into the on-chain metrics, Relative Unrealized Profit measures the aggregate paper gains held by ETH investors relative to the network's historical norms. In March 2024, at +2σ, the metric indicated extreme optimism, often a precursor to corrections as holders locked in gains. Fast forward to now, and with ETH trading in a similar price range but at just +1σ, the market appears less overheated. This could attract more institutional flows, especially as ETH spot ETFs continue to gain traction. Traders should monitor support levels around $3,200-$3,500, which have held firm in recent sessions, and resistance near $4,000, the March high. A breakout above this could validate the $4.9K target, potentially driven by increased trading volumes and positive sentiment from broader crypto market correlations. For instance, if Bitcoin (BTC) maintains its momentum above $60,000, ETH could benefit from a rising BTC/ETH pair, offering leveraged trading plays on platforms like Binance or OKX.

Trading Strategies and Market Indicators for ETH

From a trading perspective, this lower unrealized profit level presents actionable insights. Short-term traders might consider long positions on dips toward the 50-day moving average around $3,300, with stop-losses below $3,000 to mitigate downside risks. On-chain data supports this, as metrics like active addresses and transaction volumes have been steadily climbing, indicating growing network activity without the speculative frenzy seen earlier in the year. Looking at cross-market implications, ETH's performance often correlates with tech-heavy stock indices like the Nasdaq, where AI-driven stocks have fueled recent gains. If institutional investors rotate funds into crypto amid stock market volatility, ETH could see amplified inflows, pushing it toward that $4.9K implied target. Keep an eye on 24-hour trading volumes; a spike above $20 billion could signal the start of a bullish phase, while declining volumes might warrant caution.

Broadening the view, this scenario underscores broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. With unrealized profits not yet at euphoric levels, ETH holders may be more inclined to hold through volatility, reducing the likelihood of sharp pullbacks. Compared to historical cycles, this positions ETH for a potential extended rally, especially if macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts boost risk assets. Traders analyzing multiple pairs, such as ETH/USDT or ETH/BTC, should note that a shift to +2σ in unrealized profits could coincide with heightened volatility—plan for take-profit levels at $4,500 and $4,900. Overall, this Glassnode insight, dated July 31, 2025, serves as a reminder that not all price highs are created equal; the underlying on-chain health could pave the way for sustainable growth, offering savvy traders a edge in navigating the evolving crypto landscape.

In summary, while ETH flirts with familiar highs, the tempered unrealized profits suggest untapped potential. By integrating these on-chain signals with technical analysis, investors can identify high-probability trades, balancing risks with the promise of reaching $4.9K. As always, combine this with real-time market monitoring for optimal decision-making.