According to @business, Polymarket data shows that wagering against Donald Trump taking promised actions would have produced returns similar to the S&P 500, while betting he would follow through was a losing proposition, highlighting an execution-risk premium in these event contracts; source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing via @business, Oct 20, 2025; Polymarket data. According to @business, traders allocating to the “No” side on Trump policy event markets historically captured equity-like returns, whereas the “Yes” side underperformed, suggesting positioning bias and sizing should reflect the historical edge observed in Polymarket outcomes; source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing via @business, Oct 20, 2025; Polymarket data.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Robinhood (HOOD) will add 100+ new Kalshi prediction markets on its platform in the coming week, signaling an imminent expansion of event-contract trading access for retail users, source: @StockMKTNewz on X dated 2025-10-17 and the referenced RobinhoodApp post on X. Kalshi operates a CFTC-regulated designated contract market for event contracts, ensuring listings are under U.S. derivatives oversight, source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Designated Contract Markets list and Kalshi exchange disclosures. Kalshi’s product set includes macro event markets such as CPI releases and FOMC outcomes that are commonly used to trade or hedge data risk, source: Kalshi market catalog and product descriptions. For crypto impact, BTC and ETH volatility tends to rise around CPI and FOMC windows, making event contracts relevant for traders positioning around those catalysts, source: CME Group research on Bitcoin volatility around macro events; Robinhood offers crypto trading including BTC and ETH, source: Robinhood Crypto product page.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction market Kalshi has surpassed $1 billion in monthly trading volume, with the milestone referenced to Kalshi’s own announcement on X (source: The Kobeissi Letter via X, Sep 15, 2025; Kalshi via X). The cited posts disclose a monthly total but provide no product-level or historical breakdowns, limiting further quantitative comparison from the source material (source: The Kobeissi Letter via X; Kalshi via X). The $1 billion monthly figure provides a stated liquidity benchmark for sizing and routing trades on the venue as reported (source: Kalshi via X; The Kobeissi Letter via X).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Forbes reports that prediction market platform Kalshi is processing about $1 billion in monthly trading volume as of September 15, 2025 (source: Forbes; source: @StockMKTNewz). The post did not provide additional details on market categories, user metrics, or fee structure beyond the headline volume figure (source: @StockMKTNewz). No crypto-specific markets or impacts were specified in the cited summary (source: @StockMKTNewz).