On March 1, 2025, at 14:30 UTC, an unidentified trader executed a massive $200 million long position on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) with 50x leverage, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter) [1]. This high-risk move implied that even a 2% drop in Bitcoin's price would result in a liquidation of the entire $200 million position. The following day, on March 2, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, President Trump announced the establishment of the US Crypto Reserve, which would include both BTC and ETH [2]. This announcement led to a significant surge in the prices of both cryptocurrencies. Specifically, Bitcoin's price jumped from $60,000 to $65,000 within an hour of the announcement, while Ethereum increased from $3,500 to $3,800 during the same period [3]. The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase saw an immediate spike, with volumes reaching 15,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC respectively within the first hour post-announcement [4]. Similarly, ETH/USD trading volumes on these platforms increased to 500,000 ETH and 300,000 ETH, respectively [5]. This extraordinary event raises questions about potential insider information and its impact on the cryptocurrency markets.

The implications of the US Crypto Reserve announcement and the preceding leveraged trade are profound for traders. Following the announcement, the market sentiment shifted dramatically bullish, resulting in a 8.33% increase in Bitcoin's price and an 8.57% increase in Ethereum's price within an hour [3]. This surge led to the immediate liquidation of short positions, with over $100 million in short positions liquidated on both BTC and ETH across major exchanges [6]. The BTC/ETH trading pair saw a significant increase in trading volume, with the pair's volume on Binance reaching 20,000 BTC within the first two hours post-announcement [7]. The Fear and Greed Index, a key market sentiment indicator, surged from 55 to 75 within the same period, indicating a shift towards extreme greed among investors [8]. This event also influenced other cryptocurrencies, with tokens like Litecoin (LTC) and Ripple (XRP) experiencing price increases of 5% and 4% respectively within the first hour [9]. The correlation between BTC and these altcoins during this period was 0.85, indicating a strong positive relationship [10].

Technical analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum following the announcement revealed significant changes in key indicators. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged from 60 to 75, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a pullback [11]. Ethereum's RSI similarly increased from 55 to 70, also entering overbought territory [12]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bullish crossovers, with BTC's MACD line crossing above the signal line at 15:30 UTC on March 2, and ETH's MACD line following suit at 15:45 UTC [13]. Trading volumes for BTC and ETH remained elevated throughout the day, with BTC/USD volumes averaging 12,000 BTC per hour and ETH/USD volumes averaging 400,000 ETH per hour on major exchanges [14]. On-chain metrics such as the number of active addresses and transaction volumes also saw significant increases, with BTC's active addresses rising from 800,000 to 1.2 million and ETH's active addresses increasing from 500,000 to 750,000 within the first 24 hours post-announcement [15].

[1] The Kobeissi Letter, X post, March 2, 2025
[2] White House Press Release, March 2, 2025
[3] CoinMarketCap, Price Data, March 2, 2025
[4] Binance, Trading Volume Data, March 2, 2025
[5] Coinbase, Trading Volume Data, March 2, 2025
[6] Coinglass, Liquidation Data, March 2, 2025
[7] Binance, BTC/ETH Trading Volume, March 2, 2025
[8] Alternative.me, Fear and Greed Index, March 2, 2025
[9] CoinMarketCap, Price Data, March 2, 2025
[10] CryptoQuant, Correlation Data, March 2, 2025
[11] TradingView, BTC RSI Data, March 2, 2025
[12] TradingView, ETH RSI Data, March 2, 2025
[13] TradingView, MACD Data, March 2, 2025
[14] Binance, Trading Volume Data, March 2, 2025
[15] Glassnode, On-chain Metrics, March 2, 2025