According to @Andre_Dragosch, markets fully price a 25 bps FOMC cut (100% probability) and 5% odds of 50 bps, with roughly 75 bps of easing by year-end 2025, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He argues the Fed is cutting into a stagflationary setup—softening labor alongside re-accelerating inflation—and projects US headline CPI could return to about 5% in 2026, a path not reflected in 1-year CPI swaps (~3.3%) or breakevens (~2.7%), source: @Andre_Dragosch. He contends this implies renewed financial repression with real yields likely turning negative from current ~+1.2% on 5-year TIPS, reducing the appeal of Treasuries and favoring scarce assets like Bitcoin (BTC), which he says is positively correlated with market inflation expectations and benefits from declining real yields, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He highlights fiscal dominance risks—federal debt growing ~7.5% per year post-Covid versus ~1% potential real growth (CBO)—suggesting 6–7% structural inflation may be needed to stabilize debt-to-GDP, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He warns the long end has already firmed, with the 10-year yield up ~38 bps since Sep 2024 despite ~100 bps of policy cuts, and flags further 10-year increases on inflation expectations and term premia as a trigger for possible yield curve control or renewed QE, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He notes cuts typically steepen the curve and accelerate money supply growth, a setup he expects to extend BTC’s bull market into 2026; traders should watch CPI swaps, 5-year TIPS real yields, the 2s10s slope, and the 10-year Treasury as key signals, source: @Andre_Dragosch.