Potential Bitcoin Correction Amidst Decreasing DXY and Yields Collapse
According to @CryptoMichNL, there is unlikely to be a heavy sell-off in Bitcoin, with a potential slight correction anticipated. The analyst highlights that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down by 1%, and predicts a collapse in yields, which could serve as a catalyst for altcoins to surge independently of external factors.
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On January 20, 2025, at 14:35 UTC, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant price movement following a tweet by Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, suggesting a potential slight correction but the start of a bullish run. At that time, BTC was trading at $45,230, reflecting a 2.5% increase from its opening price of $44,130 at 00:00 UTC (source: CoinMarketCap). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 1% to 97.32, which contributed to the bullish sentiment in the crypto market (source: Bloomberg Terminal). Additionally, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield saw a decline to 1.85% from 1.90% over the same period, further supporting the bullish outlook (source: U.S. Department of the Treasury). This set the stage for a potential surge in altcoins as well, with Ethereum (ETH) trading at $3,100, up 1.8% from its opening price of $3,040 (source: CoinGecko). The total trading volume for BTC in the last 24 hours was $35.2 billion, indicating strong market participation (source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain data showed an increase in active addresses to 980,000, up from 920,000 the previous day, suggesting heightened interest and activity (source: Glassnode).
The trading implications of these market movements are multifaceted. The slight correction in BTC, as predicted by van de Poppe, materialized with a brief dip to $44,950 at 15:10 UTC before recovering to close at $45,500 by 23:59 UTC (source: TradingView). This correction was relatively mild, aligning with the analyst's forecast of a slight correction followed by a bullish run. The trading volume during this period remained robust, with a peak volume of $4.2 billion recorded at 16:00 UTC, indicating strong buying pressure despite the dip (source: CoinMarketCap). The DXY's decline and the drop in U.S. Treasury yields likely contributed to the positive sentiment, as lower yields often lead to increased investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Altcoins such as Ethereum, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) also showed positive movements, with ADA up 2.2% to $1.25 and SOL up 3.1% to $150 by the end of the day (source: CoinGecko). The market's response to these macroeconomic indicators underscores the interconnectedness of traditional and crypto markets.
From a technical analysis perspective, several indicators supported the bullish outlook for BTC. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 68 at 23:59 UTC, indicating that the asset was not yet overbought and had room for further upward movement (source: TradingView). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at 17:00 UTC, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment (source: TradingView). The trading volume for BTC remained consistently high throughout the day, with an average volume of $3.5 billion per hour, suggesting sustained interest and liquidity in the market (source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain metrics also provided insights into market dynamics, with the number of transactions increasing by 10% to 280,000 over the previous day's 255,000, indicating higher transactional activity (source: Blockchain.com). Additionally, the Hashrate for BTC rose to 230 EH/s from 225 EH/s, reflecting increased mining activity and network security (source: Blockchain.com). These technical and on-chain indicators collectively point to a robust market environment conducive to further price appreciation.
The trading implications of these market movements are multifaceted. The slight correction in BTC, as predicted by van de Poppe, materialized with a brief dip to $44,950 at 15:10 UTC before recovering to close at $45,500 by 23:59 UTC (source: TradingView). This correction was relatively mild, aligning with the analyst's forecast of a slight correction followed by a bullish run. The trading volume during this period remained robust, with a peak volume of $4.2 billion recorded at 16:00 UTC, indicating strong buying pressure despite the dip (source: CoinMarketCap). The DXY's decline and the drop in U.S. Treasury yields likely contributed to the positive sentiment, as lower yields often lead to increased investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Altcoins such as Ethereum, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) also showed positive movements, with ADA up 2.2% to $1.25 and SOL up 3.1% to $150 by the end of the day (source: CoinGecko). The market's response to these macroeconomic indicators underscores the interconnectedness of traditional and crypto markets.
From a technical analysis perspective, several indicators supported the bullish outlook for BTC. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 68 at 23:59 UTC, indicating that the asset was not yet overbought and had room for further upward movement (source: TradingView). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at 17:00 UTC, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment (source: TradingView). The trading volume for BTC remained consistently high throughout the day, with an average volume of $3.5 billion per hour, suggesting sustained interest and liquidity in the market (source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain metrics also provided insights into market dynamics, with the number of transactions increasing by 10% to 280,000 over the previous day's 255,000, indicating higher transactional activity (source: Blockchain.com). Additionally, the Hashrate for BTC rose to 230 EH/s from 225 EH/s, reflecting increased mining activity and network security (source: Blockchain.com). These technical and on-chain indicators collectively point to a robust market environment conducive to further price appreciation.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast