According to the source, Polymarket pricing implies a 61% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $130,000 before the end of this month, based on Yes shares trading near $0.61 in the relevant market as of Oct 7, 2025 (source: Polymarket market data, Oct 7, 2025). For traders, this sets a 61%/39% risk framework for upside versus failure-to-touch scenarios this month, which can inform position sizing and conditional orders around the $130,000 trigger level (source: Polymarket market data, Oct 7, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, JP Morgan has increased their probability estimate of a recession occurring in 2025 to 60%. Traders should consider the potential impact of economic downturns on cryptocurrency markets, as historical trends suggest increased volatility during such periods.

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has increased to 47%. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies, prompting traders to consider risk management and hedging strategies in their portfolios.

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), the cryptocurrency market had priced in a chance of active Bitcoin buying by the US government. However, the recent Executive Order (EO) announcement has significantly reduced the probability of such an event occurring in 2025, leading to market disappointment.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast Bitcoin rising to $124,000 as the base case for 2025, a decrease of $25,000 since January, as reported by @Kalshi. Furthermore, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year is now seen at just 36%.