According to Charlie Bilello, US Retail Sales have risen 3.9% year over year while US Consumer Sentiment has fallen to near record lows, creating the widest gap on record between spending and sentiment (video referenced), source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 28, 2025. The retail sales growth cited is tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report, a primary measure of consumer spending momentum, source: U.S. Census Bureau. The sentiment data is measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely followed gauge of household outlook used by traders, source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. For crypto and broader risk assets, elevated post-2020 correlations between Bitcoin and equities mean macro data shocks in consumption and sentiment can transmit to BTC and ETH price action, source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto–equity correlation.

According to Cathie Wood, the liquidity squeeze that has hit AI and crypto will reverse in the next few weeks, noting that markets appeared to validate this view on the day of her remarks, source: Cathie Wood on X, Nov 26, 2025. She cited a 123% year-over-year increase in Palantir’s US commercial business last quarter as evidence of robust AI demand, source: Cathie Wood on X, Nov 26, 2025. She characterized this outlook as constructive for risk assets in AI and crypto, implying near-term catalysts for BTC and ETH if liquidity conditions improve, source: Cathie Wood on X, Nov 26, 2025.

According to @52kskew, December is a make-or-break month for risk assets including crypto, signaling a critical period for market direction (source: X post by @52kskew on Nov 26, 2025).

According to @52kskew, two comments from Fed’s John Williams last Friday temporarily put a floor under risk assets as markets shifted from pricing out a December rate cut to pricing it back in, indicating a meaningful macro repricing that affects crypto as part of the risk complex, source: @52kskew on X, Nov 26, 2025. According to @52kskew, post-government-shutdown economic data carry lower reliability for the Fed, leading markets to push policy expectations further out into Q1 2026, source: @52kskew on X, Nov 26, 2025. According to @52kskew, traders should expect a period of higher volatility around fiscal policy, inflation, and labor headlines, which can impact crypto assets like BTC and ETH alongside broader risk markets, source: @52kskew on X, Nov 26, 2025.

According to @CNBC, Taiwan President Lai pledged an additional $40 billion defense budget while lashing out at Beijing, marking a clear escalation signal in cross-strait tensions (source: CNBC tweet and article link https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/taiwan-president-lai-china-japan-xi-trump-defense.html). Historical evidence shows that spikes in geopolitical risk are associated with lower equity returns and higher volatility as measured by the Geopolitical Risk Index, a pattern relevant for Asia risk assets (source: Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, Federal Reserve Board, https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm). Research also finds BTC and ETH increasingly trade like risk assets, with higher correlation to equities since 2020, implying geopolitical risk transmission to crypto market volatility (source: IMF blog “Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks,” 2022, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-threatening-financial-stability).

According to @cas_abbe, the probability of a U.S. December rate cut has jumped from about 35% a week ago to 84.7% today, referencing odds commonly derived from Fed funds futures pricing. Source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 25, 2025; CME Group FedWatch Tool. @cas_abbe also states that Core PPI came in lower than expected, which he says should further boost rate-cut odds. Source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 25, 2025. For traders, the macro backdrop matters for crypto because crypto prices have increasingly moved in sync with equities since 2020, making BTC and ETH sensitive to policy-easing signals. Source: International Monetary Fund blog, 2022, Crypto Prices Move in Sync With Stocks.

According to @KobeissiLetter, September headline PPI rose 2.7% year over year versus 2.6% expected, while core PPI eased to 2.6% versus 2.7% expected, indicating a mixed inflation signal for markets (source: @KobeissiLetter). They state that PPI inflation is less concerning than the weakening labor market, shifting focus to growth risks over price pressures (source: @KobeissiLetter). They add that a December Fed rate cut is now anticipated, implying a potential pivot toward easier policy (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto traders, the combination of a softer core print and rising rate-cut odds can support risk appetite for BTC and ETH, though the headline PPI beat may temper immediate upside until yields and dollar traction confirm the move (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields held steady as traders focused on prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut, keeping attention on interest-rate expectations as the next market catalyst for risk assets, including crypto (source: @CNBC).

According to CNBC, Global Trend Alert said the market is giving hints that it is topping and advised traders to use extreme caution (source: CNBC post on X dated Nov 24, 2025). CNBC’s message referenced the broad market and did not include specific indicators or price levels, providing a general risk warning without asset-class detail, and no crypto-specific information for BTC or ETH was disclosed (source: CNBC post on X dated Nov 24, 2025).

According to @caprioleio, the S&P 500 fell about 200 points over the past two weeks as markets flipped on December rate-cut expectations, moving from roughly 90% at the start of November to 30% and then back to 70% likelihood, impacting risk assets. source: @caprioleio, Nov 24, 2025 According to @caprioleio, if this reversion in rate-cut odds continues, it is expected to carry Bitcoin somewhat higher, indicating potential near-term upside for BTC. source: @caprioleio, Nov 24, 2025

According to @StockMKTNewz, the Magnificent 7 generated a combined $588.7 billion in Q3 2025 revenue versus $278.3 billion in Q3 2020, a roughly 111 percent increase based on the reported figures, source: @StockMKTNewz. The Magnificent 7 consists of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, as defined by the S&P 500 Magnificent 7 index methodology, source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Bitcoin has shown elevated short-term correlations with U.S. equities, with rolling correlations reaching about 0.5–0.6 during 2022, underscoring tighter cross-asset linkages relevant to crypto positioning, source: International Monetary Fund. IMF research also documents increased bidirectional spillovers between crypto and equity markets since 2020, indicating that mega-cap tech developments can transmit to crypto via shared risk-sentiment factors, source: International Monetary Fund.

According to Eric Balchunas, he is not joining the bears despite elevated valuations because he sees a current Trump Put and a potential Fed Put with a new Fed chair by May, even suggesting negative rates could emerge next year, signaling a pro-risk backdrop that may support equities and crypto such as BTC and ETH; source: Eric Balchunas on X, Nov 23, 2025. For trading, this viewpoint implies leaning long-on-dips in risk assets and monitoring the May policy-appointment timeline and the rate path as catalysts for volatility and beta performance in BTC and ETH; source: Eric Balchunas on X, Nov 23, 2025.

According to @WhiteHouse, the Administration highlighted a powerhouse week including a FIFA task force, a jobs report said to have doubled expectations, a McDonald’s summit, mention of Cristiano Ronaldo, a $1 trillion Saudi investment, freed hostages in Israel, a Department of Education closing, and six months of zero illegal crossings, offering headline signals but no figures or documents in the post for validation, which frames this as event-risk rather than tradeable data until confirmed (source: @WhiteHouse). For positioning, traders should validate each item with primary issuers before making moves: nonfarm payrolls and unemployment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, any Saudi capital program details from the Saudi Ministry of Investment, border statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and agency status updates from the U.S. Department of Education (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Saudi Ministry of Investment; U.S. Customs and Border Protection; U.S. Department of Education). To map potential market impact, monitor rate-cut probabilities via CME FedWatch and USD momentum via the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, while tracking crypto risk via BTC options implied volatility on Deribit and spot liquidity on major exchanges to gauge risk-on/off spillovers around any confirmed releases (sources: CME FedWatch; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Deribit; major exchange order books). Historical patterns show upside payroll surprises coincide with higher short-end Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, conditions that have pressured high-beta assets including crypto during tightening phases; watch UST 2Y yield reaction and BTC performance around jobs releases to manage delta and optionality (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve H.15; Macrohistory Database). If details of the cited $1 trillion Saudi investment are confirmed, track sovereign flow channels via the Public Investment Fund disclosures and Saudi Ministry of Investment reports, alongside oil-linked FX and global liquidity gauges that can influence cross-asset beta correlations relevant to crypto (sources: Public Investment Fund; Saudi Ministry of Investment; Bank for International Settlements).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US goods trade deficit narrowed by $18.6 billion (+24%) in August to -$59.6 billion, marking one of the largest monthly improvements this year (@KobeissiLetter). Imports fell 5% to $340.4 billion, the second-lowest level since May 2024 (@KobeissiLetter). Traders monitor the goods balance because net exports feed directly into US GDP accounting (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). Given the documented rise in crypto–equity correlation, macro shifts from trade data can influence digital-asset risk sentiment (International Monetary Fund).

According to @CNBC, the S&P 500 dividend yield has fallen to its lowest level since the dotcom bubble, highlighting a historically thin income profile for U.S. equities, source: CNBC. This matters for traders because a lower index dividend yield mechanically reflects higher prices relative to dividends, making dividend-based valuation screens less attractive at the index level, source: CNBC. Cross-asset allocators may focus more on equities versus bond carry and sector leadership dynamics as yield scarcity concentrates performance, with potential liquidity implications for high-beta assets including crypto, source: CNBC. Crypto-focused traders can monitor equity breadth, the equity risk premium, and funding conditions to gauge whether equity income scarcity coincides with risk-on or de-risking across digital assets, source: CNBC.

According to @ki_young_ju, BTC faces a more bearish setup, and a strong recovery is unlikely for the next 3–6 months until macro liquidity returns in 2025. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He emphasizes that macro dollar liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle, noting tightening liquidity and ongoing selling in risk assets likely persisting until liquidity eases next year. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He adds that both market and on-chain metrics show weak liquidity now and that the classic on-chain bull cycle has ended. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He notes a sharp bounce toward around 100K is possible, but if that level does not break, the probability of another lower low increases. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He cites Luke Gromen’s view that a large US fiscal deficit and weakening foreign demand for Treasuries could leave the Treasury market unstable without fresh liquidity, implying scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin should move higher when liquidity returns next year; he aligns with this view. Source: @ki_young_ju citing @LukeGromen on X, Nov 21, 2025. Trading implications: prioritize dollar-liquidity signals over on-chain cycle, monitor Treasury market stress, treat 100K as pivotal resistance, and expect range or downside until a clear liquidity inflection in 2025. Source: synthesis of @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Dow has extended its five-day decline to nearly 2,000 points as the selloff spreads beyond crypto, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 18, 2025. The move is characterized as a routine correction in equities by the source, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 18, 2025. Nvidia NVDA earnings due tomorrow are highlighted as a potential market-moving catalyst that could change the setup across risk assets, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 18, 2025. Crypto traders are cautioned that cross-asset pressure has already extended beyond digital assets, making NVDA results a key event to monitor, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 18, 2025.

According to @BinanceResearch, with the government reopened, about US$1 trillion in US Treasury cash is set to flow back into markets, with roughly US$100 billion expected in November, creating a short-term liquidity tailwind for risk assets and crypto; source: @BinanceResearch tweet on Nov 18, 2025 and Binance Research Weekly Market Commentary dated 2025-11-14.

According to @KobeissiLetter, US consumer sentiment among non-stockholders has fallen to the lowest level since the University of Michigan began tracking in 1998, dropping about 10 points in recent months. According to @KobeissiLetter, sentiment among the largest stockholders improved by roughly 10 points over the same period to near year-to-date highs, widening the gap between stockholders and non-stockholders to about 20 points, the most since late 2024. According to @KobeissiLetter, job market concerns are at their highest since the 1980s while the S&P 500 trades near all-time highs. According to @KobeissiLetter, this participation split suggests the stock market boom is leaving Main Street behind, a divergence traders can factor into liquidity, breadth, and risk assessment across equities and crypto-correlated assets such as BTC and ETH.

According to @KobeissiLetter, extreme fear levels have hit a new low, signaling a sharp risk-sentiment swing that traders can monitor for capitulation entries, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 14, 2025. The author notes the S&P 500 was at a record high only 11 trading days ago, underscoring the speed of the reversal, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 14, 2025. They frame the current drawdown as emotional selling and call it the best buying opportunity, highlighting a buy-the-dip setup for disciplined participants, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Nov 14, 2025.