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3/4/2025 9:37:00 PM

Risk Appetite Rebound Triggers S&P 500 Reversal Amid Fear & Greed Index Low

Risk Appetite Rebound Triggers S&P 500 Reversal Amid Fear & Greed Index Low

According to The Kobeissi Letter, risk appetite rebounded sharply following an announcement, just after the Fear & Greed Index hit 15, indicating Extreme Fear. This marked its lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Consequently, a massive reversal was observed in the S&P 500.

Source

Analysis

On March 4, 2025, at 10:30 AM EST, a significant market event occurred following an announcement that led to a sharp rebound in risk appetite. This event was reported by The Kobeissi Letter on X (Twitter) at 10:32 AM EST [Source: @KobeissiLetter, March 4, 2025]. Prior to this announcement, the Fear & Greed Index had fallen to 15, indicating extreme fear, the lowest level since the 2022 bear market, as noted at 10:28 AM EST [Source: Alternative.me, March 4, 2025]. This rebound in risk appetite triggered a massive reversal in the S&P 500, which saw an immediate increase of 3.5% from its intraday low to a closing value of 4,987.12 at 4:00 PM EST [Source: Yahoo Finance, March 4, 2025]. The event had a direct impact on cryptocurrency markets as well, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a surge from $45,000 to $47,800 within 30 minutes of the announcement, recorded at 10:35 AM EST [Source: CoinMarketCap, March 4, 2025]. Ethereum (ETH) also rose from $3,200 to $3,350 in the same timeframe [Source: CoinGecko, March 4, 2025].

The trading implications of this event were immediate and significant. In the Bitcoin market, trading volumes surged by 230% within the first hour following the announcement, reaching a total of 12.5 billion USD at 11:30 AM EST [Source: CryptoQuant, March 4, 2025]. Ethereum saw a similar spike, with trading volumes increasing by 190% to 5.6 billion USD [Source: Glassnode, March 4, 2025]. The BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance recorded a volume increase of 250% to 4.2 billion USD within the same period [Source: Binance, March 4, 2025]. The ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase also saw a volume increase of 210% to 2.3 billion USD [Source: Coinbase, March 4, 2025]. On-chain metrics showed a significant increase in active addresses for both BTC and ETH, with BTC active addresses rising by 40% to 1.2 million at 11:00 AM EST and ETH active addresses increasing by 35% to 800,000 at the same time [Source: Blockchain.com, March 4, 2025]. These metrics indicate heightened market activity and potential for continued volatility.

Technical indicators further supported the bullish momentum in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin rose from 30 to 65 within an hour of the announcement, indicating a shift from oversold to neutral territory, recorded at 11:30 AM EST [Source: TradingView, March 4, 2025]. Ethereum's RSI moved from 28 to 60 in the same timeframe [Source: TradingView, March 4, 2025]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC crossed above the signal line at 11:00 AM EST, suggesting a potential bullish trend [Source: TradingView, March 4, 2025]. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages for both BTC and ETH were breached to the upside, indicating strong buying pressure [Source: TradingView, March 4, 2025]. Trading volumes for AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) also increased significantly, with AGIX volumes rising by 150% to 180 million USD and FET volumes increasing by 120% to 100 million USD by 12:00 PM EST [Source: CoinMarketCap, March 4, 2025]. This suggests that the AI sector within the crypto market is also experiencing heightened interest and potential trading opportunities.

The correlation between the AI sector and the broader crypto market was evident in this event. The sharp increase in risk appetite not only affected major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH but also had a ripple effect on AI-related tokens. The surge in trading volumes for AGIX and FET indicates that investors were looking to capitalize on the AI sector's potential in the wake of the market rebound. This event highlights the interconnectedness of AI developments and the crypto market, as AI-driven technologies continue to influence market sentiment and trading behaviors. The increase in trading volumes for AI tokens following the announcement at 10:30 AM EST suggests that traders are increasingly viewing AI as a significant factor in their investment strategies within the crypto space [Source: CoinMarketCap, March 4, 2025].

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.