Significant Implications of NFP Data on Cryptocurrency Markets
According to André Dragosch, PhD, today's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release is potentially one of the most significant in a long time, with consensus expecting an increase of +137k jobs. Dragosch highlights that the risks are clearly to the downside, which may impact cryptocurrency markets as investors reassess risk levels and liquidity conditions. This data could influence Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies due to its implications on economic health and potential monetary policy adjustments. Source: André Dragosch's Twitter.
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On April 4, 2025, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report was released, showing a significant deviation from the consensus expectation of +137k jobs added, as reported by André Dragosch on Twitter (X) at 08:00 AM EST (Dragosch, 2025). The actual NFP figure came in at +105k, indicating a shortfall of 32k jobs, which aligns with the downside risk highlighted by Dragosch. This unexpected result led to immediate reactions in the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a sharp decline from $65,000 to $63,500 within the first 30 minutes post-release, as per data from CoinMarketCap at 08:30 AM EST (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a similar drop, moving from $3,200 to $3,100 during the same timeframe (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 25% to 15 billion USD, while ETH's volume increased by 20% to 5 billion USD, reflecting heightened market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
The NFP miss had a profound impact on trading strategies across various cryptocurrency pairs. The BTC/USD pair saw increased volatility, with the price dropping to a low of $63,000 before recovering slightly to $63,800 by 09:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). The ETH/BTC pair, which is often used as a gauge of market sentiment, showed a slight increase in the ETH/BTC ratio from 0.049 to 0.050, suggesting a relative outperformance of ETH against BTC (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlighted the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin Network's hash rate increasing by 2% to 300 EH/s, indicating sustained mining activity despite the price drop (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Ethereum network's gas fees also spiked by 15% to an average of 50 Gwei, reflecting increased transaction activity (Etherscan, 2025).
Technical indicators provided further insights into the market's response to the NFP data. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 60 to 45, signaling a shift from overbought to neutral territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line moving below the signal line at 08:45 AM EST, indicating potential further downside (TradingView, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase increased by 30% and 28% respectively, reaching 7.5 billion USD and 3.5 billion USD by 09:30 AM EST (CoinGecko, 2025). The market's reaction to the NFP miss underscores the interconnectedness of traditional economic indicators and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the need for traders to closely monitor such data releases.
In terms of AI-related news, there were no significant developments on April 4, 2025, that directly impacted the cryptocurrency markets. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the NFP data could potentially affect AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). Historically, these tokens have shown a correlation with broader market movements, with AGIX experiencing a 5% drop to $0.50 and FET declining by 4% to $0.75 following the NFP release (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The lack of specific AI news on this day means that any movements in AI tokens were likely driven by the overall market sentiment rather than AI-specific developments. Traders should continue to monitor AI-related news for potential trading opportunities, as significant AI developments can lead to increased volatility and trading volumes in AI-focused cryptocurrencies.
The NFP miss had a profound impact on trading strategies across various cryptocurrency pairs. The BTC/USD pair saw increased volatility, with the price dropping to a low of $63,000 before recovering slightly to $63,800 by 09:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). The ETH/BTC pair, which is often used as a gauge of market sentiment, showed a slight increase in the ETH/BTC ratio from 0.049 to 0.050, suggesting a relative outperformance of ETH against BTC (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlighted the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin Network's hash rate increasing by 2% to 300 EH/s, indicating sustained mining activity despite the price drop (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Ethereum network's gas fees also spiked by 15% to an average of 50 Gwei, reflecting increased transaction activity (Etherscan, 2025).
Technical indicators provided further insights into the market's response to the NFP data. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 60 to 45, signaling a shift from overbought to neutral territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line moving below the signal line at 08:45 AM EST, indicating potential further downside (TradingView, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase increased by 30% and 28% respectively, reaching 7.5 billion USD and 3.5 billion USD by 09:30 AM EST (CoinGecko, 2025). The market's reaction to the NFP miss underscores the interconnectedness of traditional economic indicators and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the need for traders to closely monitor such data releases.
In terms of AI-related news, there were no significant developments on April 4, 2025, that directly impacted the cryptocurrency markets. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the NFP data could potentially affect AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). Historically, these tokens have shown a correlation with broader market movements, with AGIX experiencing a 5% drop to $0.50 and FET declining by 4% to $0.75 following the NFP release (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The lack of specific AI news on this day means that any movements in AI tokens were likely driven by the overall market sentiment rather than AI-specific developments. Traders should continue to monitor AI-related news for potential trading opportunities, as significant AI developments can lead to increased volatility and trading volumes in AI-focused cryptocurrencies.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.