More from André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro | Flash News
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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.
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Bitcoin: Mystery Whale Buys $17B Near $58K
The Block reports via Richard Byworth that a mystery bitcoin whale accumulated $17 billion near $58K, separate from Strategy and ETF flows, reviving global Bitcoin game theory discussions. (Source) 10-24-2026 03:34 UTC |
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Gold: Equilibrium Price at $3,200 via Money Supply
André Dragosch stated that gold's equilibrium price implied by global money supply stands at around $3,200, matching technical targets discussed by James Van Straten. (Source) 10-23-2026 06:51 UTC |
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Bitcoin: Resilience Forecast on Bond Yield Easing
@Andre_Dragosch states Bitcoin will probably remain relatively resilient amid the rout as easing expectations already appear in lower bond yields. (Source) 10-22-2026 05:30 UTC |
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Dragosch: Cryptoassets Insensitive to Midterm Odds
André Dragosch examined Polymarket midterm election probabilities and determined that none of the top 10 cryptoassets exhibits a statistically significant relationship, with R-squared values mostly below 1%. (Source) 10-22-2026 01:23 UTC |
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Bitcoin: Growth Repricing Keeps Downside Risks Elevated
André Dragosch states that incomplete repricing in global growth expectations under tight monetary policy leaves short-term downside risks elevated for Bitcoin, echoing conditions seen in the 2022 Fed hike cycle. (Source) 10-20-2026 02:05 UTC |
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JPM Coin: Ethereum Mainnet Extension
@Andre_Dragosch notes JPM Coin launched on JPMorgan's enterprise blockchain in 2019, moved to Base in 2025, and now extends to Ethereum Mainnet, underscoring actions over public statements. (Source) 10-20-2026 00:01 UTC |
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Bitcoin: Outperforms Major Indices Amid AI Sell-Off
André Dragosch states that Bitcoin has outperformed every major equity index and ETF in October amid the AI sell-off, countering the view of it as a leveraged NASDAQ play. (Source) 10-19-2026 05:28 UTC |
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Bitcoin Policy Institute: AI Models Pick BTC for Savings
Bitcoin Policy Institute Q3 update shows AI models selecting Bitcoin for savings tasks in 70.8 percent of responses while favoring stablecoins for payments in 73.5 percent, per analysis posted by André Dragosch on October 15 2026. (Source) 10-15-2026 11:27 UTC |
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LLM Token Index: Hits New All-Time Low at 97 Cents
The LLM Token Expenditure Index from Silicon Data fell to 97 cents on Monday, marking its lowest level since creation late last year and more than half below its summer peak, per analyst André Dragosch. (Source) 10-15-2026 07:43 UTC |
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CRWV: 1117 bps CDS Spread Signals 42.5% Default Risk
André Dragosch stated that the 1117 bps 5Y CDS spread on CRWV already implies a 42.5% default probability over the next five years. (Source) 10-15-2026 01:06 UTC |
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Anthropic: Perp Drops 14% From ATH on Binance
Anthropic perp futures on Binance fell roughly 14% from their recent all-time high, with analyst André Dragosch tying the slide directly to shrinking IPO odds. (Source) 10-14-2026 18:54 UTC |
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Anthropic: Open-Source AI Drives Token Price Deflation
André Dragosch posted that token price deflation among Anthropic and OpenAI will most likely continue because open-source models from DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot AI and Nvidia undercut proprietary costs by wide margins. (Source) 10-14-2026 18:41 UTC |
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Bitcoin ETPs: $40B Inflows Linked to 100% Gains
André Dragosch estimates that a $40 billion net inflow into global bitcoin ETPs has historically aligned with roughly 100% performance, while noting ongoing capital rotation potential from semiconductor ETFs amid AI trade consolidation. (Source) 10-14-2026 05:36 UTC |
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Bitcoin ETPs: Outpace Gold Inflows With $40B Rotation Potential
André Dragosch reports Bitcoin ETPs have drawn more capital than gold ETPs in 2026, highlighting roughly $40 billion in potential inflows from semiconductor ETFs if the AI trade consolidates. (Source) 10-14-2026 05:29 UTC |
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CoreWeave: Unsecured Notes Yield 15% in HY Market
André Dragosch reported that CoreWeave’s unsecured notes reached 1,000bps spread-to-worst and now yield roughly 15 percent, prompting debate over AI infrastructure pricing. (Source) 10-13-2026 07:29 UTC |
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Bitcoin: Korean Pivot Signals Global Kimchi Premium Spread
André Dragosch notes Korean stock investors pivoting into bitcoin on positive Kimchi premium as KOSPI drops 9 percent over two days while bitcoin recovers after a 2 percent dip. (Source) 10-13-2026 05:15 UTC |
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Dragosch: AI Hyperscaler Circularity Raises Bust Risks
André Dragosch flags circular cash flows among Microsoft, Amazon and Google plus $2.3 trillion in RPOs tied to OpenAI and Anthropic, warning that credit markets may soon question whether AI capital expenditures can generate adequate returns. (Source) 10-13-2026 05:08 UTC |
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Dragosch: AI Circular Financing Risks Bubble
André Dragosch highlights circular cash flows between hyperscalers and AI firms plus $2.3 trillion RPO backlog dependent on OpenAI and Anthropic, warning credit markets may question returns as capex nears $1 trillion annually. (Source) 10-13-2026 05:06 UTC |
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Bitcoin: One Year Since $19B Liquidation Event
André Dragosch marks the one-year anniversary of crypto's largest liquidation event that erased over $19 billion in 24 hours and hit 1.6 million accounts. (Source) 10-09-2026 21:12 UTC |
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MSTR: Treasury Firms Lead BTC Amplification
MSTR and ASST treasury plays target high amplification ratios on Bitcoin upside, with BTC at $82657 amid neutral RSI and bullish MACD on 4h chart. (Source) 10-09-2026 08:56 UTC |