According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in 8 days after making 53 predictions with 25 wins, 28 losses, and a 47.2% win rate. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the trader focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA), frequently traded spread markets, bought positions mostly at $0.40–$0.60, placed very large bets of $200K to over $1M, and held to settlement with no hedging or scaling. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, winning trades typically returned +60% to +150% while losing trades settled at $0 (-100%), allowing just two or three losses to erase prior gains. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, with this payoff structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable in high-variance spread markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the key lesson is that strict position limits and risk management matter more than conviction because a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account in prediction markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929