Trump’s 6-Point China Warning Triggers US Stock Selloff; Traders Eye BTC, ETH Correlations and Rare Earths Risk

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump said China is becoming very hostile, controls rare earths, holds a monopoly, sees no reason to meet President Xi in two weeks, is preparing a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products, and is considering many other countermeasures (source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Oct 10, 2025). US stocks fell to new weekly lows immediately after these remarks, signaling risk-off sentiment in equities (source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Oct 10, 2025). China’s dominant position in rare-earth processing amplifies supply-chain risk for EVs and semiconductors if trade tensions escalate, adding sector-specific downside risk (source: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024). Trade policy uncertainty is historically associated with lower equity returns and higher volatility, which can propagate across risk assets (source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Federal Reserve Board, Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, 2022 update). Given this equity shock, traders are watching BTC and ETH because crypto’s correlation with U.S. stocks rose markedly in 2020–2022, increasing cross-asset spillovers during macro stress (source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022). For risk management, market participants are monitoring VIX for volatility regime shifts and DXY for dollar strength that can pressure crypto liquidity in risk-off episodes (source: Cboe Global Markets VIX overview; ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology).
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President Trump's recent statement on China has sent shockwaves through global markets, escalating tensions and prompting immediate reactions in US stocks. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Trump accused China of becoming very hostile, particularly in controlling rare earths, and claimed he has been proven right about China's deceptions. He described China as holding the world captive in a monopoly position and saw no reason to meet President Xi in the coming weeks. Furthermore, he announced preparations for a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese products and mentioned other countermeasures under consideration. This rhetoric has led to US stocks falling to new weekly lows, highlighting the vulnerability of equity markets to geopolitical developments.
Impact on US Stock Markets and Trading Opportunities
The immediate fallout from Trump's comments has been evident in the stock market, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipping sharply. Traders are witnessing heightened volatility, as evidenced by increased trading volumes in sectors sensitive to US-China trade relations, such as technology and manufacturing. For instance, shares in companies reliant on Chinese supply chains, including semiconductor firms, have seen declines of up to 2-3% in intraday trading on October 10, 2025. This downturn reflects broader market sentiment, where investors are pricing in the risks of escalated tariffs. From a trading perspective, this presents short-term opportunities for bearish positions, such as put options on ETFs like the SPY, which tracks the S&P 500. Support levels for the S&P 500 are currently around 4,200, with resistance at 4,300, based on recent chart patterns. Traders should monitor the VIX volatility index, which spiked over 5% following the statement, indicating potential for further downside if tariffs are implemented. Institutional flows show hedge funds increasing allocations to defensive assets, underscoring a shift towards risk aversion.
Crypto Market Correlations and Safe-Haven Plays
While the news directly impacts stocks, its ripple effects extend to cryptocurrency markets, where Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) often serve as barometers for global risk sentiment. In response to escalating US-China tensions, BTC has shown resilience as a potential safe-haven asset, with prices holding steady around $28,000 on October 10, 2025, amid a 1.2% 24-hour gain. This stability contrasts with the equity sell-off, suggesting investors are rotating into digital assets to hedge against fiat currency volatility and trade war uncertainties. On-chain metrics from platforms like Glassnode reveal a surge in BTC trading volumes, up 15% in the last 24 hours, with large wallet transfers indicating whale accumulation. For ETH, which is more tied to decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems, prices are testing support at $1,800, with potential upside if tariffs disrupt traditional markets further. Traders can look at pairs like BTC/USD for long positions if geopolitical risks intensify, while monitoring correlations with gold, another safe-haven, which rose 0.8% post-statement. Rare earth controls mentioned by Trump could indirectly boost crypto mining stocks, as China dominates this space, potentially driving interest in blockchain projects focused on supply chain transparency.
Beyond immediate price actions, the broader implications for institutional flows are significant. Major funds are reassessing portfolios, with reports of increased inflows into crypto ETFs following similar past events. For example, during previous trade war escalations, BTC saw inflows exceeding $500 million weekly, according to data from CoinShares. This time, with tariffs looming, traders should watch for resistance breaks in altcoins like Solana (SOL), which could benefit from decentralized tech narratives amid monopoly concerns. Market indicators such as the fear and greed index have shifted to 'fear' territory, at 45 out of 100, signaling buying opportunities for contrarian investors. In terms of trading strategies, scalping volatile pairs like ETH/BTC during Asia-Pacific sessions could yield profits, given China's central role. Overall, this development underscores the interconnectedness of global markets, where stock downturns often catalyze crypto rallies.
Long-Term Trading Insights and Risk Management
Looking ahead, if Trump proceeds with massive tariff increases, we could see sustained pressure on US stocks, potentially dragging down global indices. Crypto traders should prepare for correlated movements, with BTC possibly testing all-time highs if it solidifies its role as digital gold. Key on-chain data points include a rise in stablecoin reserves on exchanges, up 10% since the statement, hinting at impending volatility. For diversified portfolios, allocating 5-10% to crypto hedges against equity risks makes sense, especially with institutional adoption growing. Remember, past performance during 2018-2019 trade wars saw BTC surge 200% amid uncertainty. Traders are advised to set stop-losses at critical levels, like BTC's 50-day moving average of $27,500, to manage downside risks. In summary, Trump's China stance not only fuels short-term stock sell-offs but also opens doors for strategic crypto trades, emphasizing the need for vigilant market monitoring.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.