The upcoming release of the US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, scheduled for tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, is poised to be a significant market-moving event for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. According to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the most likely outcome for the CPI Year-over-Year (YoY) figure is 2.3% or below, as highlighted in a recent update by Evan on social media on May 12, 2025. This inflation data is critical as it serves as a key indicator of economic health, influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, which in turn impact risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. A lower-than-expected CPI reading could signal easing inflationary pressures, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Fed, boosting risk appetite across markets. Conversely, a higher-than-anticipated figure might reignite fears of tighter monetary policy, weighing on equities and crypto alike. As of 3:00 PM ET on May 12, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $62,500 on Binance, with a 24-hour trading volume of $18.2 billion, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the data release. Ethereum (ETH) mirrors this caution, trading at $2,550 with a volume of $9.8 billion in the same timeframe. The crypto market’s total capitalization stands at $2.2 trillion, per CoinMarketCap data accessed at 3:15 PM ET on May 12, 2025, showing a slight 0.8% dip over the past 24 hours, indicative of pre-event jitters.

From a trading perspective, the CPI data release could create substantial volatility across crypto markets, particularly for major pairs like BTC/USD and ETH/USD. A CPI reading at or below 2.3% could catalyze a relief rally, potentially pushing BTC past its recent resistance at $63,000, a level it briefly tested at 10:00 AM ET on May 11, 2025, before retracting. On the flip side, a hotter-than-expected inflation figure might drive BTC down to its support level of $61,000, last seen at 2:00 PM ET on May 10, 2025, on major exchanges like Coinbase. Ethereum could similarly oscillate between $2,600 resistance and $2,500 support, levels observed over the past 48 hours as of 3:30 PM ET on May 12, 2025. Stock market movements post-CPI will also play a crucial role; a positive surprise could lift indices like the S&P 500, which closed at 5,200 points on May 11, 2025, at 4:00 PM ET, according to Yahoo Finance. Such gains often correlate with increased institutional inflows into crypto, as risk-on sentiment prevails. Conversely, a negative CPI outcome could see capital flight from both stocks and crypto into safer assets like bonds, impacting trading volumes. As of 2:45 PM ET on May 12, 2025, on-chain data from Glassnode shows a 12% increase in BTC wallet outflows over the past 24 hours, hinting at profit-taking or repositioning ahead of the event.

Technical indicators further underscore the market’s sensitivity to this data. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart sits at 48 as of 3:45 PM ET on May 12, 2025, per TradingView, indicating a neutral stance but with room for momentum shifts. ETH’s RSI mirrors this at 47, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance spiked by 15% between 9:00 AM and 12:00 PM ET on May 12, 2025, reaching $5.1 billion, reflecting heightened activity as traders position themselves. Cross-market correlations remain strong; Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.65 as of data pulled at 4:00 PM ET on May 12, 2025, from CoinGecko analytics, meaning stock market reactions to CPI will likely ripple into crypto. Institutional money flow is another factor; a dovish CPI outcome could see renewed interest in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN), which traded at $205.30 at market close on May 11, 2025, at 4:00 PM ET, per NASDAQ data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a combined trading volume of $1.2 billion on May 11, 2025, as reported by Bloomberg Terminal at 5:00 PM ET, could also see inflows if risk sentiment improves post-CPI.

The interplay between stock and crypto markets ahead of this inflation data cannot be overstated. Historically, lower inflation readings have bolstered crypto assets as institutional investors seek higher returns outside traditional markets. If the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which closed at 16,300 points on May 11, 2025, at 4:00 PM ET per Reuters, react positively to a sub-2.3% CPI, we could see a parallel uptick in BTC and ETH trading volumes, potentially by 10-20% within 24 hours post-release, based on past trends observed during similar events. On-chain metrics from Dune Analytics at 3:50 PM ET on May 12, 2025, show stablecoin inflows to exchanges rising by 8% over the past 12 hours, often a precursor to buying pressure in crypto markets. Traders should monitor key levels and volume spikes immediately following the 8:30 AM ET release on May 13, 2025, to capitalize on short-term opportunities or hedge against downside risks driven by stock market volatility.

FAQ Section:
What time is the US April CPI data being released?
The US April CPI inflation data is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET on May 13, 2025, and traders should be prepared for immediate market reactions across asset classes.

How could the CPI data impact Bitcoin and Ethereum prices?
A CPI reading at or below 2.3% could trigger a rally, potentially pushing Bitcoin past $63,000 and Ethereum above $2,600, based on resistance levels observed as of May 12, 2025. Conversely, a higher reading might drive prices down to supports at $61,000 for BTC and $2,500 for ETH, as seen in recent trading data.

Should traders adjust positions before the CPI release?
Given the heightened volatility expected, traders might consider tightening stop-losses or reducing leverage on positions. On-chain data showing increased BTC outflows as of 2:45 PM ET on May 12, 2025, suggests some are already repositioning, and monitoring volume changes post-8:30 AM ET on May 13, 2025, will be crucial.