IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5%
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal
Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket
Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58%
On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing.
Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85%
U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran memorandum to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional strikes Wednesday night, sending oil up and stocks lower.
Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5%
A report said Donald Trump claimed the U.S. attacked Iran’s Kharg Island the previous night and floated reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports.
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31
On July 8, 2026, four oil and gas tankers reportedly reversed course after vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting fresh security risk for energy shipping.
US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5%
Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears.
Oil jumps on U.S.-Iran tensions as Polymarket puts Hormuz fees at 76% by Dec 31
Brent climbed over 3% to $76.48 a barrel at 06:30 GMT after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran attack report clouds US-Iran talks as Polymarket Switzerland slips to 31%
A report said Iran attacked Kuwait and Bahrain, reigniting US-Iran tensions and casting doubt on near-term logistics for follow-on talks.
US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5%
CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran.
U.S. charges in Nijjar killing case lift Polymarket to 72.5% on Hormuz fees
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U.S. hits Iran after ship attacks, Polymarket sees 61.5% Hormuz normalcy
Early Wednesday, the U.S. military struck Iran hours after three merchant ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a fragile ceasefire and complicating talks to reopen the waterway.
OPEC+ hikes output as Hormuz traffic lags, Polymarket 99% on no by July 15
After a virtual meeting, OPEC+ said it will raise output by 188,000 bpd from August as it continues unwinding 2023 voluntary cuts, while Hormuz transits stayed far below the usual ~130 per day.
Iran funeral preparations hit Hormuz normalization bet to 59.5% on Polymarket
Today in Tehran, Iran is holding a funeral procession for its slain supreme leader, with organizers expecting millions to attend amid heightened tensions.
Khamenei funeral draws crowds as Polymarket sees 11.5% odds of US invading Iran
On the second day of funeral ceremonies in Tehran, Iranian TV showed Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud Khamenei praying behind coffins at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla as Mojtaba remained absent.
