IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds jump: US-Iran invasion risk hits 30.5% after tariff news
As a stopgap tariff window expires, a report says President Donald Trump is pressing ahead with new 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries. Polymarket traders care because the “U.S.
Polymarket holds Iran regime-fall odds at 10.5% as US-Iran strikes escalate
A U.S. military statement said it began a new round of strikes against Iran as clashes intensified around shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket odds sink to 51.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by year-end
A report says President Donald Trump warned of the largest strikes on Iran yet after retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 30.5% after Houthi-Riyadh headline
A new report warned another Middle East “oil artery” is under threat as the Houthis are described as “testing Riyadh,” amplifying escalation and shipping-risk concerns.
Polymarket: Hormuz normal-traffic odds stuck at 13.5% amid lawsuit fallout
On July 23, 2026, a report said sailors from a Thai cargo ship attacked in the Strait of Hormuz sued the ship’s owners, alleging ignored Iran warnings.
Polymarket prices 10.5% Iran regime fall odds before 2027 amid US strikes
A July 23 report says the US military completed a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran.
Polymarket lifts Iran invasion odds to 29.5% after 12th night of US strikes
U.S. forces carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran, extending what’s being framed as a continuing campaign rather than a one-off action.
Polymarket prices US-Iran invasion risk at 28.5% as Congress debate heats up
Fresh votes are expected in Congress on whether the president should seek approval for military action against Iran, as Republicans weigh election-year risks amid ongoing U.S.
Polymarket odds: Hormuz normalcy by Aug. 31 at 14.5% after UK pullback
The UK has withdrawn its diplomatic staff from Iran amid an “ongoing security situation,” adding to near-term regional risk.
Polymarket hikes Iran invasion odds to 28.5% as U.S.-Iran strikes persist
After the U.S. military completed an 11th night of strikes, reporting said operations could intensify near an underground area by a major Iranian nuclear site as diplomacy faltered.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 drop to 52.5%
A report says President Donald Trump warned the U.S. would destroy Iranian infrastructure after any ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
On July 22, 2026, a report said Iranian air defenses activated and explosions were heard over Tehran as the U.S. military marked an 11th straight day of strikes, with fires reported in Behbahan.
Polymarket: No US-Iran talks by Sept. 30 leads at 24.6% after Rubio warning
In Manila at an ASEAN gathering, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran’s reported push to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz could endanger global shipping and the world economy.
Polymarket odds hold 55% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31 after nuke news
A report says President Donald Trump approved a long-term Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that could allow uranium enrichment, with an announcement possible as soon as Wednesday.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz normal traffic drop to 54% after Iran strike reports
Reports said the US military carried out an eleventh straight night of strikes on Iran, with blasts near Tabriz and air defenses active around Tehran, aimed at limiting threats to Strait of Hormuz