IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
OPEC+ hikes output as Hormuz traffic lags, Polymarket 99% on no by July 15
After a virtual meeting, OPEC+ said it will raise output by 188,000 bpd from August as it continues unwinding 2023 voluntary cuts, while Hormuz transits stayed far below the usual ~130 per day.
Iran funeral preparations hit Hormuz normalization bet to 59.5% on Polymarket
Today in Tehran, Iran is holding a funeral procession for its slain supreme leader, with organizers expecting millions to attend amid heightened tensions.
Khamenei funeral draws crowds as Polymarket sees 11.5% odds of US invading Iran
On the second day of funeral ceremonies in Tehran, Iranian TV showed Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud Khamenei praying behind coffins at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla as Mojtaba remained absent.
Yemen clash dents Hormuz outlook as Polymarket puts July normalcy at 16%
A Yemeni official said Houthi forces killed 14 government troops in an attack south of Hodeidah near the Red Sea port.
Iran envoy hints at selective Hormuz fees as Polymarket odds jump to 68%
On Tuesday, an Iranian envoy said countries friendly to Tehran could get “special” treatment if fees are introduced for Strait of Hormuz use.
Russia escalates Ukraine strikes as Polymarket backs Pakistan for US-Iran talks
On July 4, 2026, Russian strikes hit multiple Ukrainian regions, killing four people in Sumy and sparking a major fire at a Kherson poultry farm.
Khamenei funeral chills diplomacy as Polymarket pegs Switzerland talks at 31%
Iran has begun a days-long funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with large crowds and chants against the U.S. and Israel.
Khamenei funeral begins as Polymarket cuts Iran regime-fall odds to 6.5%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral began in Tehran, with crowds chanting “Death to America, Death to Israel!” as the ceremony got underway.
Missile-hit CMA CGM ship may be scrapped as Polymarket Yes slips to 24.5%
CMA CGM’s chief executive said a company vessel hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz may be sent for scrapping, underscoring the security risks facing commercial shipping.
Trump touts Iran progress as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 33.5%
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to “just about everything” the United States needs, but offered no terms, timing, or location for any next meeting.
Iran warns ships in Hormuz as Polymarket odds of normal traffic slip to 26%
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters told ships in the Strait of Hormuz to stick to designated routes and Iranian navigation rules, warning violators of an immediate response.
U.S.–Iran talks show progress as Polymarket puts July 7 Hormuz normalcy at 1%
After the latest indirect U.S.-Iran talks concluded, Iran reported “positive progress” and said a communication channel with Washington will be set up to address MoU breaches.
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Israel sanctions IRGC crypto wallets; Polymarket holds Iran blockade at 31.5%
On Monday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced sanctions on dozens of crypto wallets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC, aiming to choke off terrorist financing routes.
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% No
A new report says Iran and Oman are advancing plans to impose transit fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. opposition.
