IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 at 1.15% on $19.1M
A report says U.S.-Iran attacks stretched into a 10th straight day, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled and energy prices rising.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
A July 21 report said Trump demanded “meaningful” talks with Iran while warning he could strike a nuclear site.
Polymarket sees 99.85% odds Israel–Iran ceasefire holds through July 18
The Netherlands is reported to plan a ban on products from Israeli settlements starting September 22, adding fresh political pressure in the region.
Polymarket odds of U.S. invading Iran before 2027 jump to 26.5%
Hamas elected Khalil al-Hayya as its new leader by a one-vote margin, underscoring internal splits over ties to Iran. Polymarket traders care because it could shift regional risk, with the “U.S.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz July 31 normalization seen unlikely
Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz kept falling, a new report says, blaming the continued slide on fresh US–Iran attacks.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 26.5% on $45.7M volume
Near Second Thomas Shoal, Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed, injuring a Philippine sailor, as Washington condemned China’s conduct and Manila hosted regional talks.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz traffic normal-by-Dec bet falls to 55%
On July 21, Iran’s Guards claimed they struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. defense systems in Bahrain. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic normal by Dec.
Polymarket odds for Israel–Iran ceasefire ease to 99.65% after Kuwait claim
Iran said it targeted a US base in Kuwait with missiles, a headline that immediately nudged ceasefire-risk pricing in prediction markets.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
U.S. average gas prices climbed back above $4 as Washington intensified airstrikes against Iran and Iran attacked U.S.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic back to normal by 2026? Yes odds slide to 54.5%
A July report said petrol and oil prices jumped as US–Iran tensions flared, with limited weekend transits and tanker incidents near Oman raising alarms about Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Polymarket invasion odds on Iran jump to 24.5% after Gulf attack report
Reports say Iran launched fresh attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, signaling near-term escalation in the Gulf. Polymarket traders are watching for spillover into U.S.-Iran conflict risk, with the “U.S.
Polymarket odds for US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 rise to 58.5%
Overnight, a report said U.S. strikes hit two Iranian provinces, killing one and injuring several, adding fresh escalation to the timeline traders are tracking.
Polymarket odds dip to 9.5% on Iran regime fall before 2027 after strikes
Iranian state media reported US strikes hit a city that hosts a nuclear plant, raising fresh questions about escalation.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz normalization drop to 50.5% after US-Iran strikes
CENTCOM released new video as the US launched additional airstrikes against Iran, as scrutiny grows over how the Strait of Hormuz is monitored during escalating tensions.
Polymarket odds: 98% say Hormuz traffic won't normalize by July 31
After a fresh round of U.S.