IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Tanker exits Hormuz on new Oman route as Polymarket 'Yes' falls to 5.15%
On Thursday, a Liberian oil tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz using a UN-promoted coastal route near Oman as mine threats linger and Iran-US tensions simmer over an interim accord.
Hormuz war-risk premiums fall as Polymarket puts July 15 normal traffic at 30%
On June 25, 2026, a report said insurers cut war-risk premiums for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, signaling easing perceived threats along the corridor.
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on Polymarket
U.S. and Iranian officials publicly disputed whether Tehran agreed to U.N. inspections of bombed nuclear sites as talks continued, with Trump threatening to walk away without inspections.
Bessent says Treasury to oversee Iran funds as Polymarket sees 99% for 20+ ships
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury will oversee Iranian funds released under Trump’s interim Iran agreement, aiming to steer money toward U.S. farm goods and medicines.
England-Ghana draw lifts Hormuz normalization odds to 42.5% on Polymarket
England and Ghana played to a 0-0 World Cup draw, with late chances but no breakthrough.
Post-ceasefire warning hits US-Iran deal bets, Polymarket Aug 31 at 23.5%
On June 23, 2026, NYU professor Arang Keshavarzian said the post-ceasefire Middle East is entering a fragile, uncertain phase, citing divisions over the framework and Hormuz security risks.
Iran vows Hormuz control as Polymarket prices 75.5% odds traffic stays abnormal
After talks with Washington in Switzerland ended, Iran said it will keep administering the Strait of Hormuz and that conditions won’t return to pre-war norms.
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%
Sunday night’s explosion at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility killed at least 13 and injured 66, though officials said exports won’t be affected and called it an accident.
Vance cites Iran progress; Polymarket puts Hormuz normal-traffic at 48.5%
In Bürgenstock, Switzerland, U.S.
Hormuz rhetoric shadows US-Iran talks as Polymarket deal odds tick to 25.5%
After day one of U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, U.S. stock futures slid and oil whipsawed as mediators cited “encouraging progress” even while Trump warned over any Hormuz closure.
Oil flows persist despite Iran claims, Polymarket sees 51.5% odds of normal
Over the weekend, ship-tracking and U.S. Central Command showed millions of barrels moving through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian claims it was closed.
Israeli poll boosts Iran regime-fall odds to 35% on Polymarket
On June 21, a Hebrew University and Agam Institute poll found 92.1% of Israelis think Iran gained more from the war and US deal.
NATO warns cheap drones strain defenses as Polymarket Hormuz Yes ticks to 28.5%
On July 15-targeted timeline, NATO deputy commander Sir John Stringer said cheap drones and mass attacks are straining Western air defenses, highlighting the cost gap between Patriots and
Iran re-closes Hormuz as Polymarket Yes odds tick up to 2.55%
Days after Washington and Tehran signed an MoU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said it had closed the waterway again as oil flows began to rebound.
Iran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators arrived in Switzerland Sunday for renewed talks as Tehran said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz to vessel traffic.