IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Iran, US clash on Hormuz status as Polymarket prices 58.5% No by July 31
Iran’s joint military command said the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington sees no evidence of a shutdown and believes it remains open.
Post-truce Lebanon strikes lift Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 47.5%
Israeli strikes killed at least 16 people in Lebanon on Saturday, hours after a truce began Friday at 4 p.m., highlighting how fragile the calm remains.
Lebanon ceasefire tested as Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 6.5%
A U.S. official said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a Lebanon ceasefire, but rescue crews reported at least 12 air strikes after it began at 16:00 local time.
Trump remarks fuel Israel-Iran tensions as Polymarket sees 4.5% Iran halt
In a new interview, President Donald Trump said Israel acts in line with his wishes as Israel launched overnight strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and a ceasefire was announced Friday.
Hormuz tanker traffic jumps as Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 44%
At least 20 oil tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the busiest day since June 2, as commercial shipping resumed under a U.S.-Iran arrangement.
Vance cancels trip, US-Iran talks slip; Polymarket has Switzerland at 68%
A planned round of direct US-Iran talks at Switzerland’s Burgenstock resort was postponed after Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip, with the White House citing unpredictable logistics.
Hormuz tanker traffic resumes as Polymarket Yes odds rise to 2.7%
After the U.S. lifted its blockade on Iran Thursday, shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz and Brent fell 1% to $79.03, lifting Japan and South Korea stocks to records.
Oil eases as Hormuz reopens, Polymarket puts July traffic normal at 47%
U.S.-Iran follow-up talks in Switzerland were called off, and oil prices swung even as tankers carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight.
Hormuz shipping resumes as Polymarket sees 5.5% odds Iran halts enrichment
Friday, at least four tankers entered the Strait of Hormuz as Brent rose to $80.38 after an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, even while Iran signaled tighter transit controls.
Postponed US-Iran talks push Polymarket to 13.5% on ending enrichment by July
European stocks slipped after Tehran and Washington postponed talks, while JD Vance said any economic relief hinges on full compliance and Iran’s supreme leader called the interim terms conditional.
US lifts Iran blockade, Polymarket puts no US-Iran meeting by June 30 at 40%
On June 18, the United States lifted its blockade of Iran and tankers resumed moving through the Strait of Hormuz as a tentative war-ending deal took hold.
US ends Iran blockade; Polymarket sees Hormuz normal by July at 46%
U.S. Central Command said the United States ended its naval blockade of Iran after the two countries signed a 14-point deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Iran MOU keeps enrichment status quo as Polymarket Yes slips to 19.5%
President Donald Trump signed an MOU with Iran that keeps its nuclear program’s “status quo” while talks continue, postponing decisions on uranium enrichment and stockpiles.
US-Iran Hormuz passage deal fails to sway Polymarket, 'Yes' at 7.5%
OPEC chief Haitham al-Ghais pushed back on the IEA’s warning of a 2027 supply glut as investors assessed a new US-Iran memorandum offering 60 days of toll-free, safe Strait of Hormuz passage.
Trump–Pezeshkian MOU signed, Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 61.5%
A Feb. 28 attack on Iran and a new Trump–Pezeshkian memorandum outline U.S. concessions tied to pressure points like the Strait of Hormuz and ending the Lebanon war.