IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Report flags US-Iran peace framework as Polymarket 'no meeting' dips to 50%
A new report says the U.S. and Iran have a preliminary framework for a longer-term peace deal, helping drive oil about 30% below its April 7 peak near $113.
Trump–Iran deal targets Hormuz reopening as Polymarket normal-traffic odds slip
On Wednesday, Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a 14-point interim memorandum to halt regional military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with toll-free commercial
War inflation shifts rate bets as Polymarket Iran enrichment Yes dips to 55.5%
Central banks are warning the Iran-war inflation shock may not fade quickly, with investors now pricing two U.S. rate hikes in 2026 as energy disruptions linger.
Trump–Pezeshkian peace memo puts Iran enrichment end at 74.5% on Polymarket
Early Thursday, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump signed an interim peace memorandum after the G7, pledging immediate effect and steps like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing oil
U.S.-Iran deal eases Hormuz fears as Polymarket sees 67.5% for enrichment halt
Oil prices were little changed after JD Vance said tankers carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight, following a Trump-Pezeshkian deal to restore passage.
Iran offers 60-day toll-free Hormuz passage as Polymarket sees 56.5% normalcy
U.S. officials said Iran and Gulf states will meet after an initial 60-day period of toll-free, safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with a Geneva memorandum expected Friday.
U.S.-Iran MOU spotlights Hormuz reopening as Polymarket Yes slips to 14.5%
Overnight Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian signed a light-on-details MOU that would lift a U.S. naval blockade and seek toll-free Strait of Hormuz reopening for 60 days.
Trump Iran MOU heads to Congress as Polymarket invasion odds tick up to 12.5%
During the G7 meeting in France, Donald Trump said he could transmit an Iran memorandum of understanding to Congress as it looked set to take effect Friday.
Trump rebukes Israel at G7 as Polymarket cuts Switzerland to 74.6%
At the June 16 G7 summit in France, Donald Trump criticized Israel’s strikes in Lebanon and warned Beirut attacks could endanger his Iran peace deal.
Fed holds rates as Hormuz normalcy odds edge up to 22.5% on Polymarket
U.S. stocks slid Wednesday after the Fed held rates steady in Chair Kevin Warsh’s first decision, while projecting higher odds of hikes as energy prices rose amid Middle East tensions.
Gas prices near $4 as truce lowers risk, Polymarket puts Iran deal at 46%
On Tuesday, the U.S. average gas price slipped to $4.04 a gallon after oil briefly fell below $80 and a U.S.-Iran truce set a Friday signing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran deal set to reopen Hormuz, but Polymarket prices 21% for June normal
On Tuesday, Brent crude hovered near $81 a barrel as the US and Iran prepared to sign a deal Friday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after a three-month closure.
Iran touts US deal as victory as Polymarket June 30 text-release odds dip
Iranian officials including parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf have publicly backed an emerging memorandum of understanding with the United States, casting it as “final victory” amid war
Fed hold outlook lifts Polymarket odds for US-Iran talks in Switzerland to 87%
A survey of 32 economists, fund managers and strategists expects the Kevin Warsh-led Fed to hold rates steady through 2027, with 88% seeing an easing-bias removal this week.
Oil slides on U.S.-Iran peace hopes as Polymarket dips to 56.5% on Hormuz
Brent crude fell 5% Tuesday to $78.96 as U.S.-Iran peace hopes grew, though shipping executives cautioned Hormuz traffic may not normalize quickly.