IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Israel sanctions IRGC crypto wallets; Polymarket holds Iran blockade at 31.5%
On Monday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced sanctions on dozens of crypto wallets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC, aiming to choke off terrorist financing routes.
Iran-Oman Hormuz transit fee talks hit odds: Polymarket sees 85.5% No
A new report says Iran and Oman are advancing plans to impose transit fees on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. opposition.
Algeria heads to July 2 vote as Polymarket keeps Qatar at 47.5% for talks
On July 2, Algerians head to the polls to choose 407 lawmakers, with low turnout expected and reforms since the 2019 Hirak movement still contested.
Trump crypto disclosure nudges Polymarket US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%
A US Office of Government Ethics report released this week detailed President Donald Trump’s 2025 financial disclosures, including over $1.4 billion tied to crypto ventures and meme coin sales.
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcy
A top Iranian negotiator said a memorandum of understanding with the United States remains unfulfilled, and Iran won’t hold broader talks until it is implemented.
Iran-Qatar frozen assets talks lift Polymarket odds for Qatar to host US-Iran
Iran’s foreign ministry said it will hold talks with Qatar on frozen assets, underscoring Doha’s intermediary role on sensitive financial issues.
Zelenskyy cites new Dubna strike as Polymarket lifts US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv struck Russia’s Dubna satellite site a second time, underscoring continued attacks on space-linked infrastructure.
Iraq sets militia deadline as Polymarket lifts Qatar odds for US-Iran talks
Iraq set a Sept. 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to dissolve, according to a report, sharpening timelines around Tehran’s regional influence.
Iran rules out near-term US talks as Polymarket puts Dec. 31 deal odds at 45.5%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said there would be no Iran-US talks in the coming days, signaling no immediate diplomatic engagement.
Israeli strike raises tensions as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 43.5%
On Oct. 7 fallout, Israel’s military said an airstrike killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative it claims crossed into Israel and took hostages.
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%
Brent crude rose about 0.9% Monday to $73.21 after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iran over alleged vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%
Fresh exchanges between the United States and Iran have put a reported preliminary understanding in doubt, complicating the push toward a finalized nuclear agreement.
Tehran presses for Hormuz control as Polymarket sees 7.5% odds of normal traffic
In a live war update, Tehran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while separate accounts pointed to talks involving the United States.
Hormuz halt report points to Qatar talks as Polymarket holds Doha at 48%
A report says the US and Iran agreed to halt Hormuz-linked attacks and plan Qatar talks on Tuesday to ease tensions around the strait.
