IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
South Lebanon strike report drops Iran regime-fall odds to 0.05% on Polymarket
A report said an Israeli strike was carried out in south Lebanon in recent days, though officials haven’t confirmed details.
US strikes, Trump vow sink Polymarket Jul15 Hormuz normalization odds to 13.5%
Fresh U.S. military strikes coincided with former President Donald Trump warning he would “complete the job” in Iran, heightening escalation concerns around Gulf shipping lanes.
US strikes Iran again after Hormuz tanker hit; Polymarket sees 99.95% by Aug 31
On the second day of renewed action, the U.S. struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, and drone sites after the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku was hit in the Strait of Hormuz around 4:30 a.m. ET.
CENTCOM confirms new US strikes as Polymarket puts Iran shipping hit at 99%
On June 27, U.S. Central Command confirmed new U.S. strikes, saying Iran had a chance to honor a ceasefire but chose not to.
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would use “force” against Iran if Tehran blocks implementation of a Lebanon deal, highlighting risks of escalation.
US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds down to 5%
After a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command released video it said showed strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and coastal radar sites.
Iran rejects US Hormuz hotline as Polymarket sees just 3.55% for normal traffic
Iran’s IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said a proposed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz hotline “has not happened and will not happen,” as reports described renewed fire and a ship hit late Thursday.
Iran warns of swift response as Polymarket puts 59% odds on June 27 strike
A senior Iranian official said Iran would respond swiftly and decisively to alleged U.S. agreement violations, amplifying uncertainty over near-term escalation.
Iran cites retaliation strikes as Polymarket pegs July 7 shipping hit at 89.5%
Iran said it struck US-linked targets in retaliation for earlier US attacks, underscoring a readiness to answer pressure with force and widening concerns about escalation beyond military sites.
Bolton guilty plea dents Polymarket odds for US-Iran nuclear deal by Dec 2026
Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty to illegally retaining classified information, renewing focus on how sensitive documents are handled.
Iran strike report lifts Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 31.5%
A report said Iran targeted U.S. military positions in retaliation for earlier American airstrikes, raising fears of wider escalation and shipping disruptions.
Reports of US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds to 0.15%
Reports said the United States carried out strikes in Iran after an attack on a cargo ship, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened a response.
US strikes Iran; Polymarket lifts Dec. 31 nuclear deal odds to 54%
On Friday, the U.S. hit Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites after a drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump alleges Iran Hormuz breach as Polymarket puts Jul 31 talks at 72%
Former President Donald Trump said Iran broke a ceasefire by firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking new concern over maritime security.
UAE-Iran security call lifts Polymarket 'normal Hormuz traffic' odds to 33.5%
The UAE held a rare security-focused call with Iran as tensions put Strait of Hormuz shipping safety under scrutiny.
