IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket: Iran Hormuz fee odds dip to 72% for Dec 31 after ship attacks
A top US commander in the Middle East said Iran attacked seven commercial ships in the past week, heightening maritime-risk worries.
Polymarket: Iran invasion Yes jumps to 19.5% after Kish strike report
A headline about a fire on Iran’s Kish after U.S. strikes spread on July 14, 2026, and traders treated it as an escalation catalyst.
Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31 at 1.85% Yes
Reports say the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes as an interim peace deal unraveled, with incidents around the Strait of Hormuz and claims of vessels hit in Gulf waters.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 19.5% after reported U.S. strikes
A report said the U.S. launched strikes on Iran after Trump announced a renewed blockade tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping, prompting Iranian attacks on U.S. allies and vessels.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 seen at 2% after UK IRGC ban
Iran condemned the UK’s move to ban the IRGC as “irresponsible,” casting the dispute as a security flashpoint that could feed Gulf shipping-risk narratives.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normal by 2026 drop to 56.5%
Iran’s parliament has begun drafting legislation billed as “management of the Strait of Hormuz,” spotlighting possible changes in how the waterway is handled.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 jump to 19% on report
After a third night of U.S. strikes, a report says President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran’s fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site and demanded 20% of Strait of Hormuz cargo value.
Polymarket odds rise to 70.5% for Iran Hormuz fees by Dec 31
Over a third straight night, the US reportedly struck Iran as Tehran claimed retaliation around the Strait of Hormuz, with blasts along the southern coast and attacks on vessels.
Polymarket odds hit 99.95% for Iran Gulf action by July 9 after Trump remarks
In an Oval Office media conference, President Donald Trump said the US should be paid by wealthy Gulf oil producers to secure the Strait of Hormuz from Iran and warned of another “major attack” on
Polymarket slashes Hormuz normal-traffic odds to 56.5% after conflict headlines
Donald Trump reportedly said the Iran war is moving “very fast” and that the U.S. will seek control of the Strait of Hormuz, as oil prices rose with fresh fighting.
Polymarket: Iran regime fall odds dip to 9.5% as Israel sets Oct. 27 vote
Israel’s parliament set national elections for October 27, with Benjamin Netanyahu confirming he’ll run as criticism over security failures and the Gaza war hangs over the campaign.
Polymarket odds dip to 67% on Iran Hormuz fees by Dec 31 after strike reports
Iranian state media reported nearly a dozen “enemy projectiles” hit Qeshm Island, with new explosions in Bandar Abbas, calling it a fifth wave of US strikes since a ceasefire three weeks ago.
Polymarket prices Iran invasion risk at 19.5% after expanded U.S. strikes
Over several days, U.S.
Polymarket: Hormuz normalization by July 15 at 0.35% Yes on $9.8M
After a new exchange of fire, the U.S. and Iran each claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as an initial deal to reopen it and extend a shaky ceasefire emerged.
Polymarket prices 97% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31, 2026
After U.S.