IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%
Sunday night’s explosion at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility killed at least 13 and injured 66, though officials said exports won’t be affected and called it an accident.
Vance cites Iran progress; Polymarket puts Hormuz normal-traffic at 48.5%
In Bürgenstock, Switzerland, U.S.
Hormuz rhetoric shadows US-Iran talks as Polymarket deal odds tick to 25.5%
After day one of U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, U.S. stock futures slid and oil whipsawed as mediators cited “encouraging progress” even while Trump warned over any Hormuz closure.
Oil flows persist despite Iran claims, Polymarket sees 51.5% odds of normal
Over the weekend, ship-tracking and U.S. Central Command showed millions of barrels moving through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian claims it was closed.
Israeli poll boosts Iran regime-fall odds to 35% on Polymarket
On June 21, a Hebrew University and Agam Institute poll found 92.1% of Israelis think Iran gained more from the war and US deal.
NATO warns cheap drones strain defenses as Polymarket Hormuz Yes ticks to 28.5%
On July 15-targeted timeline, NATO deputy commander Sir John Stringer said cheap drones and mass attacks are straining Western air defenses, highlighting the cost gap between Patriots and
Iran re-closes Hormuz as Polymarket Yes odds tick up to 2.55%
Days after Washington and Tehran signed an MoU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said it had closed the waterway again as oil flows began to rebound.
Iran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators arrived in Switzerland Sunday for renewed talks as Tehran said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz to vessel traffic.
Iran, US clash on Hormuz status as Polymarket prices 58.5% No by July 31
Iran’s joint military command said the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington sees no evidence of a shutdown and believes it remains open.
Post-truce Lebanon strikes lift Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 47.5%
Israeli strikes killed at least 16 people in Lebanon on Saturday, hours after a truce began Friday at 4 p.m., highlighting how fragile the calm remains.
Lebanon ceasefire tested as Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 6.5%
A U.S. official said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a Lebanon ceasefire, but rescue crews reported at least 12 air strikes after it began at 16:00 local time.
Trump remarks fuel Israel-Iran tensions as Polymarket sees 4.5% Iran halt
In a new interview, President Donald Trump said Israel acts in line with his wishes as Israel launched overnight strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and a ceasefire was announced Friday.
Hormuz tanker traffic jumps as Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 44%
At least 20 oil tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the busiest day since June 2, as commercial shipping resumed under a U.S.-Iran arrangement.
Vance cancels trip, US-Iran talks slip; Polymarket has Switzerland at 68%
A planned round of direct US-Iran talks at Switzerland’s Burgenstock resort was postponed after Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip, with the White House citing unpredictable logistics.
Hormuz tanker traffic resumes as Polymarket Yes odds rise to 2.7%
After the U.S. lifted its blockade on Iran Thursday, shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz and Brent fell 1% to $79.03, lifting Japan and South Korea stocks to records.
