IRAN & GULF PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds jump as July 12 leads Iran Gulf action ladder at 84.5%
US Central Command said it launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week, hitting about 140 military sites after an IRGC attack disabled the Cyprus-flagged M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal by July 15 priced 0.35% Yes after strikes
Iran reportedly launched missile attacks on US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar, including Al Udeid, as Doha activated emergency alerts after fresh US strikes on Iran.
Polymarket odds for Iran Gulf action fall to 66.5% after Hormuz claim
Iran’s IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz was closed in response to US interference, as Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon continued with reported civilian casualties.
Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes
A new report details rising Iran–US tensions and dueling claims about Strait of Hormuz shipping, even as mediator channels stay active and Iran’s hardliners talk retaliation.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran rise to 16.5% after strike footage report
The U.S. military reportedly released footage described as showing new strikes on Iran, renewing escalation fears.
Polymarket odds jump to 83.5% for July 12 in Iran Gulf action ladder
After a vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said roughly 140 targets in Iran were struck, followed by retaliatory attacks affecting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan.
Polymarket odds crash to 4.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
A report says Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after an “unauthorized” vessel was hit, raising fears of prolonged shipping disruption.
Polymarket cuts Hormuz normalization odds to 63.5% after Iran closure claim
A report says US forces launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week after the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic returns to normal by Dec.
Polymarket odds jump to 57.5% for Iran action on July 12 after Hormuz report
After a civilian vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a report said the U.S. began a third round of strikes on Iran as Tehran again declared the strait closed.
Polymarket prices Hormuz normal-by-July-31 at 6.5% after escalation
On July 10, a segment reported the U.S. president ordered strikes after claiming Iran broke a ceasefire by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran targeting U.S. interests in Gulf states.
Polymarket: US invade Iran odds rise to 14.5% on talks and ceasefire noise
Trump said the U.S. would keep talks after Iran sought negotiations, then wrote the June 17 ceasefire is “over,” as Tehran disputed the request and clashes persisted near Hormuz traffic.
Polymarket: Hormuz normal-by-Jul15 odds at 0.35% as No hits 99.65%
A report says US-Iran tensions spiked during a 60-day negotiation window, with attacks linked to Strait of Hormuz shipping even as officials signal talks may continue.
Polymarket odds drop on Hormuz normal-traffic bet after conflict risk report
An IEA-cited report warned renewed US–Iran fighting could extend the energy crunch, after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly stalled again despite a reopening amid diplomatic
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 rise to 15.5% on $40M
On July 10, 2026, an analysis said the U.S. is pivoting from direct pressure on Iran to a hybrid, multilayered attrition strategy built around coalitions and peripheral reshaping.
Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5%
Iranian state media reported strikes hitting military headquarters in Bushehr and the port city of Konarak, while the US told Al Jazeera it did not carry them out, on the day of Ali Khamenei’s